So the stock went up by about 140% on the "DAK" and thoughts/plans of shorting on the ASX must surely be brewing. Shorters (and even those expecting big pullbacks) must be thinking "It will take a while for the RC Trial to complete, so we can walk and talk this share price down". Even question the small 12 patient size, or even dismiss that this is not a
treatment for COVID-19. Anything goes I guess when you want cheap shares, doesn't it? Throw integrity and honesty out the window. Sure, go ahead punks, make my day. You are playing with fire. I will tell you why this will not be your one step forward and two steps back dance. Ignore me at your own peril:
1) BARDA (US government’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) has been practically giving away money to biotechs like there's no tomorrow. Granted, it's been to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. But don't doubt for a second that BARDA could very likely give money to Mesoblast in order to help in ramping up production of Remestemcel-L. Of course, that is just my opinion, but an opinion based on what I see happening in the biotech world today.
Everyone is fixated on a vaccine but they forget that the real
DREAD of this disease is the
fear of death and
death itself from ARDS. Prevent/reduce the deaths and the fear and dread goes away. How many of us fear the Flu like we fear COVID-19? So with COVID-19, it's the
DEATHS, stupid. And Mesoblast is already proving it is preventing deaths.
Examples:
a) BARDA gave
$483 million to Moderna "in the hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine development". This to a company that "
barely begun its
first safety study in a small group of 105 people".
b) BARDA gave
$456 million to Johnson&Johnson for "accelerating vaccine research and
ramping up production"
c) And get this: BARDA "is well aware that its investments are far from guaranteed to deliver returns". It knows that "
these investments may well go to waste" since there is no guarantee a COVID-19 vaccine would be developed by Moderna or J&J.
https://qz.com/1842490/us-invests-hundreds-of-millions-to-produce-covid-19-vaccines/So why would BARDA not help Mesoblast which is actually proving it can prevent/reduce deaths?
Would BARDA help an Australian company?
Well the NIH is sponsoring the RC Trial for Mesoblast. There's your answer.
So a BARDA grant for Mesoblast could be announced any day.
Wanna play with Fire?
2) In its March 10, 2020 PR, Mesoblast stated "that it plans to evaluate its allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) product candidate remestemcel-L in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States,
Australia, China and Europe. The Company is in active discussions with various government and regulatory authorities, medical institutions and
pharmaceutical companies to implement these activities.
Any day now, a news release could come about a study in
Australia, China and Europe.
Japan could very well allow use of TEMCELL to prevent ARDS deaths based on off label/expanded use. No trials would be needed there in Japan.Wanna play with Fire?
Pharma companies: In that same PR, Mesoblast mentioned it's in active discussions with
pharmaceutical companies. Any day now, a partnership with a pharma company (or companies) could be announced.
Wanna play with Fire?
3) With the pandemic, we are in unchartered and abnormal territory with stock prices. A 140% price gain for MESO is actually more like a 50% gain (Mesoblast is only about 50% higher than its late Jan 2020 sp). So
DO NOT look at the 140% gain to mislead you.
Have you looked at Pluristem's stock? It has been on a sustained run with an
RSI over 70% since April 8th. That's over 2 weeks of a sustained price action over 70% RSI !!!!
So don't expect pull backs based on RSI/technicals alone for Mesoblast. These times are a different now with this pandemic.
Wanna play with Fire?
4) There may NEVER be an effective virus for COVID-19 as news reports mention of already 33 COVID-19 mutations. It's like a dog spinning around to catch its tail.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/494371-coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30Vaccine or not, Mesoblast will save ARDS deaths.
Wanna play with Fire?
5) Buy and HOLD. Do not trade.
Do not short. You wanna play with Fire? Or you wanna be a millionaire (or even a billionaire like Prof Tim Springer of Harvard who bought and held Moderna shares)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-was-already-one-of-the-richest-teachers-in-the-entire-country-then-came-the-coronavirus-2020-04-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo6) Ever since the pandemic started, Mesoblast has done what it has said it would, on schedule. No long delays. Well on time. So don't count on months of delays before results are seen (or news is released). Sure you could see a few percentage points of a pull back in share price now and then but you could also end up losing a 100% gain (it happened last Friday on the "DAK", didn't it?).
Technical analysis goes in the dumpster on good news. The current NIH sponsored trial will NOT take months. It will be very quick with approval upon meeting primary endpoints after 28 days.
Wanna play with Fire?
7) What I find totally shocking (in a good way) is this: RSI for MESO ended at 83. In spite of a 140% gain, there was
NO Accumulation last Friday (04/24/2020. Distribution was extremely severe. What would the share price be if there was
actual Accumulation? $40 US? $50 US?
That day of accumulation is coming. The US media is catching up. CBS News already got in on Mesoblast news. Fox News will be all over this as they desperately want to make Trump look good. The liberal NBC, MSNBC and ABC news outlets will follow suit, albeit grudgingly.
Mesoblast. Mainstream US media.
Wanna play with Fire?
All opinions are my own. This post is not financial advice and should not be construed as such. Please do your own due diligence & research.
(20min delay)