Your odds for ABC of Kvanefjeld mine or D any future for GGG ?

Winning party IA with 12 seat and Naleraq 4 seats have campaigned against Kvanefjeld uranium mining
and IA leader has taken clear position "Kvanefjeld is not going to happen".

Company gave its position hinting that they can possibly give up uranium, if REEs would be accepted.

There is now an informed discussions on going to determine:

A) if and how, and to what extent, that would be, even in theory, technically possible extract REE
without extracting uranium.
There are good discussions if REEs without uranium can be found in the tenements
or if the process can be changed.

B) what would be, even in theory, politically possible with regard to based on positions taken by the parties,
before the next elections in 3-4 years.
There are good discussions on-going about these.

The game of predicting odds of the future in which GGG would have a mine in Kvanefjeld,
would need also

C) commercially and politically viable conditions fitting A and B the together.
In this context there appears to be legal speculations about forcing the Greenlanders to take the mine,
which would be an interesting double edge sword also in the political context. To evaluate this game
the legal basis may need to be elaborated.

For a rational investment decision one could analyse A, B and C,
and then calculate probability from that.

For a near term profit calculation, one would need to estimate the time needed for these change and
consider factors changing the price up until the equation would be solved one way or another.

Then there would be question of backup plan

D) company has money and would buy rights for another project
possibly in a different jurisdiction,
but would waste resources for trying to get ABC done.

There are certainly different views about the factors involved in ABCD.

The mathematics may be give different results than you would have thought.
In this game one may also consider,
what odds others and especially big players are using based on the news and information.

You may have another factors X, Y, Z, to change the game
like US-China-EU geopolitics?

Some people play well with instinct and may not need not to do this.