The regulator overseeing the federal government's pollution price regime expects around 330 entities will be liable to pay the carbon tax when it starts in eight weeks.
The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) on Friday published a list of 248 companies and city councils which it is fairly sure will be liable to pay $23 for each tonne of carbon dioxide they emit from July.
They account for around 70 per cent of emissions covered by the regime.
"(But) we've written to around 330 entities advising we believe they are likely to be liable entities for the 2012/13 financial year," CER chair Chloe Munro said in a statement.
"These entities account for over 95 per cent of emissions covered by the carbon pricing mechanism."
The list of liable polluters includes Alcoa, BHP Billiton, BlueScope Steel, Brisbane City Council, Caltex, Crown, Kimberly-Clarke, Mobil, Newcrest Mining, OneSteel, Rio Tinto, Shell Refining, Snowy Hydro, Toyota, Wagga Wagga City Council and Woodside.
The list will be updated in June and then again in July.
Entities to be added include landfill operators, which haven't previously been required to participate under the national greenhouse energy reporting system established in 2007.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard originally said the regime would cover the top 1000 polluters in the country.
But when the $23-a-tonne carbon price was announced in July last year that figure was cut in half.
Climate Change Minister Greg Combet on Friday said he was now "confident" the final figure would actually be less than 500.
"We would anticipate that by July 1 with the commencement of the scheme, of course, the vast majority of the entities will be identified and that will certainly cover the vast majority of emissions," he told reporters in Canberra.
"I think we'll come in underneath 500 but it's a matter for the regulator to finally determine."
The carbon tax will be paid by facilities that emit more than 25,000 tonnes of carbon pollution each year. The tax will transform into an emissions trading scheme in mid-2015.
The full list of liable entities identified by the CER to date can be viewed at cleanenergyregulator.gov.au.
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