There are a lot of factors at work in the matrix that is YOW...

  1. 10,030 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1059


    There are a lot of factors at work in the matrix that is YOW share price

    Currency
    Discount factor for court case
    Managemnt control discount factor- corporate raiders minority holders have no say
    Exit ability discount factor
    single product discount
    Reliance on large % of business via one outlet
    covid and opening up USA ecconomy since it is major market
    Reality of cost of expanding markets since all costs relating to that stripped out so need to start from scratch
    Advertising and shelf space costs - margin degredation as USA ecconomy picks up and space gets more expensive.Risk of recession in USA?

    Track advertising spend, rebates and engagement and effectiveness of these . They are preview to what is coming in future for sales and margins.

    You can overlay the simple ones like exchange rate on a graph but others are pure guesswork but as noted by yourself the market is discounting the metrics of YOW business otherwise it should possibly be valued higher. No idea what discount factor matrix looks like but it is real. If you graph retail growth expansion in USA and you don't see YOW growing at a relative rate to it's peers and all the other factors above it possibly represents a company that can't grow with it's sector be that because of managemnt, marketplace or competition.

    It is a tough business an drequires constant expenditure to continue to find your neiche market and make it sticky for the few years that they may be interested in chocolate / toy combination and conversion to digital platform . You are having to indroctinate a new generation all the time to make up for the genration ( age group) you are losing. Reduce advertising, product development spend ( assuming it was effecient to start with) and generally it bites you down the track. It is a tough business and running it as a stand alone is costly but finding a buyer may not be easy till court case is off books / imdemnified and cost of exiting managemnt is resolved.

    Meanwhile IMO a corporate raider will milk any income it can and keep it running as cheaper than closiong it down is my guess but it is costing them managemnt time and not freeing up cash which is what they need to fund their next raid.
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.