Hello everyone
Looking at the posts, looks like we have a " doji " discussion going on bears v bulls.............I like to think I fit in the middle, so here goes.
BEAR CASE
We are looking at a global recession here in the aftermath of this horrible disease that was laid in Wuhan and now is hatching everywhere in the world
V shape recovery? How?
Millions upon millions of people are out of work globally, economies stripped to the bone, Australia will fare better than most but even they are realistically looking at 10 - 15% unemployment in the aftermath, how many bricks and mortar retail stores will survive with the online click being the only option for the last few months? They were already struggling before, will this virus break the camels back ?
Of course the average house holder right now is stressed to the bone, so IMO, only essential items will be a priority, the stimulas package is just a band aid, it wont stop a leaky ship for too long, if at all. How many mortgages will hit the wall ?
Going by NAB, not looking pretty.
Despite the fact that Australia appears to have flattened the curve, who is realistically going to jump out of their house and get back to their normal lives in a hurry ?
Nope, their will be caution, hesitation, a level of fear initially until a " second wave " potential is dismissed, that said, this " covid safe " app could be very assuring, so that could mitigate that fear, we will soon find out in the ensuing months ahead.
Travel to overseas and even interstate, aint happening any time soon, I wouldnt travel anywhere outside WA right now, and possibly wont until a cure is on the table, BTW, WA are doing human trials as we speak, looking promising from all reports. WA always leads the way.
BULL CASE
Well we all have to hope this virus doesnt hang for too much longer, economies will recover, albeit income depressed for a while, so if you need to BUY a fridge , washing machine ASAP, what are you going to do? Go without or Z1P it ?
So in this scenario, I think the likes of APT and Z1P will do ok, but it wont be a V recovery for all the reasons I mentioned in the BEAR case.
Looking at the charts, looks like a nice " flag " position, with nice support @ $2, so I am pretty confident you can delete the $1 party thread and just focus on the $2 party right now, the $3 party thread should only partake when there is real evidence of a V recovery .
AIMHO
GLTAH
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