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$1.70 zip co limited..

its a liquidity story .. the coil is winding tight. US insto...

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abzyftw

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20/01/21

22:29

Post #: 50322860
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Originally posted by torrens197: ↑

affirms data; up to SEP 30 2020 annual report it did 510 million USD (739 million AUD) and losses of 15 million USD (22 AUD). Affirm valued at 23 billion USD (33 billion AUD). Affirm grew 98% revenue YoY and halved it's losses YoY (actual losses)

Afterpay 2020 report; 502 million AUD revenue, 97% YoY and gross losses of 0.9% of receivables (about 99 million losses compared to 48 million in 2019- losses increasing by about 105%). Afterpay market cap 38 billion aud; nearly a 20 percent premium to affirms market cap but delivering only 68 % of affirms yearly revenue but delivering more than 400% of affirms yearly losses.

I can't figure any reason why Afterpay is valued at 38 billion. Affirm is 30 percent bigger growing just as fast and in the biggest geo in the world Afterpay is not a first mover in US at all so affirm should carry a first mover price advantage.

Based off affirms market cap Afterpay should be worth about 105 shareprice no more

Zips 253 million AUD revenue and 4 million customers
is slightly more than 1/3 of affirm and more than half of Afterpays.
Zips shareprice should be roughly 1/3 of affirms market cap or on the ASX half of Afterpays. So a market cap of about 19 billion based on Afterpay and 11 billion off affirms valuation. Note zip is now growing faster than both Afterpay and affirm in their numbers based on first 4 months of Fy2021.
This would put zips shareprice range of Approx 22 dollars to 29 dollars conservatively.

Zips currently shareprice.... 6 dollars. Grossly undervalued. Or the alternative both affirm and Afterpay are grossly over valued.
Flipping the equation if zips market cap is 3.2 billion than Afterpays market cap should be 7 billion AUD (not 38) implying a share price under 30 dollars and affirms market cap should be 10 billion aud

So it begs the question how much longer will zips shareprice stay out of whack with the rest of the industry?

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its a liquidity story .. the coil is winding tight. US insto investors will need a few more qtr's of results and we'll see 15+ in 12/18 months

cant complain with potential 3x.

Z1P Price at posting: $5.98 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.70		Change -0.025(1.45%)		Mkt cap ! $1.909B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.75	$1.77	$1.68	$16.19M	9.417M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5300	$1.70

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.70	86880	4

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5300	1.695
5	17796	1.690
1	29495	1.685
19	148358	1.680
6	243576	1.675

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.700	86880	4
1.705	126026	5
1.710	157838	7
1.715	63425	4
1.720	129757	7

Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

ZIP (ASX) Chart

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