affirms data; up to SEP 30 2020 annual report it did 510 million USD (739 million AUD) and losses of 15 million USD (22 AUD). Affirm valued at 23 billion USD (33 billion AUD). Affirm grew 98% revenue YoY and halved it's losses YoY (actual losses)
Afterpay 2020 report; 502 million AUD revenue, 97% YoY and gross losses of 0.9% of receivables (about 99 million losses compared to 48 million in 2019- losses increasing by about 105%). Afterpay market cap 38 billion aud; nearly a 20 percent premium to affirms market cap but delivering only 68 % of affirms yearly revenue but delivering more than 400% of affirms yearly losses.
I can't figure any reason why Afterpay is valued at 38 billion. Affirm is 30 percent bigger growing just as fast and in the biggest geo in the world Afterpay is not a first mover in US at all so affirm should carry a first mover price advantage.
Based off affirms market cap Afterpay should be worth about 105 shareprice no more
Zips 253 million AUD revenue and 4 million customers
is slightly more than 1/3 of affirm and more than half of Afterpays.
Zips shareprice should be roughly 1/3 of affirms market cap or on the ASX half of Afterpays. So a market cap of about 19 billion based on Afterpay and 11 billion off affirms valuation. Note zip is now growing faster than both Afterpay and affirm in their numbers based on first 4 months of Fy2021.
This would put zips shareprice range of Approx 22 dollars to 29 dollars conservatively.
Zips currently shareprice.... 6 dollars. Grossly undervalued. Or the alternative both affirm and Afterpay are grossly over valued.
Flipping the equation if zips market cap is 3.2 billion than Afterpays market cap should be 7 billion AUD (not 38) implying a share price under 30 dollars and affirms market cap should be 10 billion aud
So it begs the question how much longer will zips shareprice stay out of whack with the rest of the industry?
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