zenmammon i have not forgotten u / orm capter 1, page-2

zen / orm chapter 2 URSA MAJORIS born y2000/1

Likely age : Fibo 13 years following Fibo 21 years of the previous Bull.

Likely Mode : 5 primary Elliott Waves A-B-C-D-E

Lets talk DJIA cos I have all the figures in memory ...tho they have changed the nature of this beast .... when one component does not perform, it is simply replaced by another which does. Tho SPX is the more appropriate representative .... will also use.

So far (and dont forget straight from memory so dont quibble about minor inaccuracies) :

"A" primary bear wave completes in 5 moves to Oct 12 2002 low DJIA 7200. Size of move approx 3400 points. Major pivots along the way ........ the Grand ORM pivot 7930-8150 IDL-EOD levels Sep 23, 2001, the first trading day post 9/11 closure. The mega-line in the sand tho was at 9800 where it hit twice and on third attempt sliced thru in June/July 2002 heading straight line to the low within about 4 months. The 9800 level remains the line in the sand for CURRENT market too ..... corrsponds to around SPX 1125

"B" megasuckers rally wave can be seen as either beginning from there at 7200 or more likely after a double bottom at DJIA 7400 Mar 2003. 3 distinct rally waves with top last March 2005 at SPX 1229, with lower top either side of it completing the triple top.
Many believe we should have rallied back to the 61.8% Fibo rterce level of 1254 and i too gave it a chance. But last attempt seems to have failed and recent failure to hold DJIA 10400 makes me believe we have indeed seen the high last March and "C" megabear has already sneaked outa his cave and starting to clear his sleepy eyes. Irak 2 smoke and mirrors extended life of this babybull prob by a year. Cosmics and lunar phases etc were deadly with the turns.

"C" Ursa Majoris Hunger Wave .....otherwise known as ORM asset deflation wave ..... or YEE .....yuppie extinction event. .....................current

IMO it seems to have crept in when no-one was looking around the Mar equinox 05 (sure nailed an interim XAO peak at least) and recent winter solstice /full moon nailed the next turn. Suspect we are in C-1-3 about to confirm after a bounce or two circa DJIA 9800 .... where I think we are headed for now, given the 10400 line in the sand only held momentarily for a deadcat bounce so far.

Naturally no-one will be concerned and even call it a healthy correction, if/when it bounces off the 9800/50 ORM major pivot ..where it crashed thru around 3 years ago. HOWEVER, if it doesnt hold, FEAR and PANIC will indeed set in and confirmation of C-1-3 will be at hand. Some Cosmics show an AUG focus coming up, with another around NOV or so.

Whenever the timing confirms, IMO we are already at the beginnings of megabear-C asset deflation wave and the gates of hades are about to open in a debt default induced black hole akin to japan 1991+. This is DEFLATIONERY and IMO, thats why the yanks aint worried about oil price moving up ..... in fact suspect they would WANT this to add a little inflation into the system whilst maintaining control cos if it got outa hand it could even trigger the economy tripping over into an uncontrollable megabear C .......... Mother Nature's revenge of mortals tampering with natural cycles.

IMO megabear C asset deflation wave will trigger with a move thru DJIA 9800 ORM pivot and will not pause til it reaches the ORM megapivot 7930-8150 band. That may be the end of C-1 .... and that could be seen in WEEKS from now.

C-2 rally would prob take it back to some EW / Fibo retrace level u know, the std 32, 50 or 62% bounce levels .... but 9800 ORM pivot would stop it IMO. Other poss resitances would be 9150 and 9500 ...past important turn points.

C-3 is the crash wave .... and crashes dont happen without surprise. On the lookout later for it withinthe grand ORM. The likely low for C-3 which has to be greter than C-1 which is prob gonna be around 2400 points size, would have to crunch it below the "A" low of 7200 ........maybe as low as 6600 or even lower.

C-4 rally then and followed by final C-5 wipout of the EXCESSES of this pseudo bull market from 1993-2001.............and since IMO the "natural" high should have been circa 3600 / 1993 level, a wipeout of the last 8 years excesses of the pseudobull would see it back to that level fo final "C" low.

3600 also has a "harmonic" feel to it given x 2 = the 7200 "A" wave low.

So MY target for megabear C asset deflation wave is 3600 or so and my "timing" expectation is over next coupla years .... unless some mortal adjustments are imposed by way of another "Irak".

What happens during this DEFLATIONERY phase if indeed it does eventuate?

(1) DEBT DEFAULT BLACK HOLE EXPANDS to suck in equities, bonds and property values ...... causing

(2) increasing unemployment, economic depression, falling commodity prices, falling gold price, falling PER ratings of PRODUCERS AS WELL as falling EARNINGS per se, massive reduction of ASX list, increasing crime etc etc etc

(3) INCREASING INTEREST RATES competing for the residual liquidity

In asset deflation megabear C , ORM motto is "CASH IS KING AND DEBT IS DEATH" Hence my own personal ORM 80 / 20 rule having already liquidated all investments progressively over last year or so. And NOT cos i believ in the long term "worth" of paper money, but in a debt default induced black hole, even paper has some worth as asset values disappear into thin air or into e-virtual space.

And if I am right and this is what happens to REAL asset classes, just imagine what happens to VIRTUAL "e" pseudo asset classes. Say what ?

Margins are called so the marines of the market driving it are first wiped out .... the margin traders. And in an uncontrlled domino fallout, even HEDGING in DERIVATIVES inc CFDS are WORTHLESS cos the issuers of such VIRTUAL instruments just shut their doors and claim Chapter 11. Ever tried to battle it out with a market maker when the trade goes against him? It aint pretty let alone fair. Thats why i gave up THAT suckers game long ago. OK so long as things are orderly and they can hedge your hedges, but when Ursa Majoris wreaks havoc, they are only promises aint worth the paper they AINT even written on.

So, even IF u believe in cash is king philosophy, take care WHERE your cash is held. Top 3 banks spread for mine (I dont like NAB) and put a bit in a safety deposit box in case accounts are frozen and gov bonds given ..... u may not have access to yr account but they cant stop access to yr safety deposit box. Go one step further and keep a bit of this cash in legal tender AUD gold coins if u can get yr hands on any, tho that aint gonna be important until AFTER megabear C ends.

Survival of the fittest, most flexible, debt free Olympians with sharp cleavers patiently waiting for the remaining baby bulls left standing.

Meanwhile tho, baby Olympian CMR moves to toddler stage and begins its fiddling lessons amidst the flames of Rome. THATS why I only use PER 6 and not the current norm PER 12.

And granted, "E" of PER will be coming down in USD-denominated metal price terms, but being a commodity currency, AUD will also be coming down with the metal prices. Our Olympian leaders have not left this poss unhedged either ..... look at the L/T prices used for the project financials basis ... about 30% under spot. ANZ merchant bankers must be thinking in similar terms too cos they target an AUD 0.66 by EOY.

Of course this is simplistic cos there will be competeing drivers at differnt times in different parts of the world during this loss of control and deflation of the last decades worth of hot air across all asset classes. And then there will be paper devaluations beginning at differnt times at diff places to try and compete for fast shrinking global economic pie and residual liquidities. It will be history in the making and u might have to rely on pro-active Olympian economics instead of reactive conventional economics to stay ahead of the herd.

Mentality during megabear C is PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL, cos there will be NO wealth creation during this phase. If u lose ONLY 30% of yr realisable worth and are liquid enuff to pick up residual assets at 10c in the dollar, then u r effectively 7 times relatively better off in the following up cycle.

Dont know what im talking about u might think? Check yr history 1929-32- 39 ........thats how the rockefellas and JP Morgans quantum-leaped while the plebs were suffering. But u gotta be nimble footed and realise the banks will NOT BE OFFERING EASY MONEY during this time .......u gotta alraedy be cashed up and patient.

Ive seen it several times so far since my POS early trading edecuation days. The symptons now are the same .... but its gonna be MUCH BIGGER this time. And the pity about all this is the young middle class generation which hasnt experienced a real bear market cos there hasnt been one since pre 1980 !!! So they have been conned by the spivs (the major lenders being the most irresponsible) and wont know how to cope when it happens.,

Thats my thinking for next coupla years , maybe to around 2008/9. And I try to keep all possies covered. For now 80 cash (inc some metal) / 20 CMR riing out CMR's organic emerging growth during my expected asset deflation phase, preparing then for the tsunami surf wave ride of a lifetime .... if we are still standing financially ..... somewhat protected by ARK CMR.

Chapter 2 is about ASSET PRESERVATION and damge control .......... megabear C .........asset deflation wave.

Chapter 3 next (maybe over the weekend) is "D" wave rally, fuelled by Kondratieff commodity/resources/gold supercycle "C" wave .......... fuelled by paper currency devaluations trying to pump prime deflated economies back to their feet.

Stay with me Zenmammon cos I wont be writing this again ....