Seals,I looked into the PMM scenario over the weekend, and the...

Seals,

I looked into the PMM scenario over the weekend, and the issue as to why PMM share price has risen i think is driven by two factors:

1. There is still plenty of liquid stock in PMM ie around 20% still tradeable. Cliffs have only 80.45% and have not bought any on-market now for past 2 years or so. When you then think of AGM the amount of tradeable stock will be tiny.

Doing some very rough calculations, ZFX will hold something like 77---->78% by end of this week, Jinchuan will hold 10%, MQG/UBS will hold around 10% combined.

So the amount of liquid stock available for sale will be something like 1-2%, approx 15M, assuming MQG/UBS/JInchuan will not sell. This will make the stock very hard to make a market in it. They will be no sellers, and are the buyers going to bid much higher than $1.10 in this market, hardly likely imo. So it might get like IBR/TMR situation.

2. Is the PE of PMM which right now is running at 22, for a mining company that is pretty high. Not sure if AGM will trade at a PE of 22 once the company starts to make profits.

If ZFX can get MQG/UBS to sell to them (and they must talking to them), I would be fairly certain Jinchuan will follow, maybe more so now that Jinchaun have take a stake in FXR.


Interesting few days ahead in this takeover imo...

cheers
Muzza