http://www.safehaven.com/article/26167/the-4-year-cycle-versus-the-euro-zone-crisis
Not a bad Clif Droke article on safehaven suggesting a strong correlation between the fortunes of the incumbent president (or party in the case of a retirement after 2 terms) and the stock market from early August until up until the election
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zia's obladi oblada tuesday, page-70
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