zia's pole vaulting tuesday, page-9

For some time I have been seeing the DJIA 1937/42 period as a model.

That's slightly confusing as I am matching it against 2007/13, which includes one more year.

So you need to squeeze or expand of whatever.

The best matching so far is aginst XJO/XAO rather than DJIA.

First the old DJIA and then XJO now.

The chart below is not mine but I like it a lot.

It describes a worst case scenario IMO, but is valid from the likely cyclical aspects.

For instance, a top could be over by early August in the most bearish case or as late as mid Sep in the bullish case.

I don't expect Oct/Nov to be lower than June past and think we rally into year end without much damage done.

My low next year of July 6ish is similar but in the bullish case would be more a milder low.