zinc bigger picture

Great to have another technician on board Punters - I agree with what you have said here. From my point of view the chart tells the story fully - AIM tripled in price on no new news , and it recently bought more sellers out of the woodwork on the release of the licence good news. The fact is the smart money starts buying well and truly before news is released, and they wait to take profits on the good news when the uninitiatated jump on board and provide the volume for them to be able to offload. There is no doubt that the fundamentals will be the driver of any stock price but often stocks have moved considerably already before the news is released to us plebs - the technicals tell you the news well before the news ie. when to time your entry - this is what its all about in my view - TIMING.

Anyway , regurgitated fundamentals on zinc stockpiles, India and Chinas insatiable appetite for zinc etc etc is just the same info paraphased from so called expert to expert to journalist to financial commentor to broker to whatever. One thing I can tell you that is fact is that there is no one out there that really knows what China and India are doing or thinking for the Future and there is always a fundamental red herring that can kill any bull run on any market.

Attached here is just another viewpoint (technical of course) on why zinc may have already peaked . Now I'm not saying it has because I don't know , but I'm not going to naivily sit here without at least considering the possibility. Take a look at this zinc weekly chart. To keep it simple , I believe it is about to find a bottom at these present levels - I believe it will retrace back and recover 50% - 61.8% of what it has lost on this run down via an upward 3 wave pattern - ie . a zig zag up down up. It will then be at this very point that everyone will be saying zinc has recovered and we are on our way to new highs . Maybe it will and maybe it wont - but at this point on the chart , there will be a pattern that will be almost complete that will be very bearish - whether it takes hold or not I don't know , but it will be the most crucial point in defining zincs immediate long term trend than at any other point . This is purely based on my own technical analysis and this will evolve over quite a few months . Anyway, just look at this as an alternative option to consider , thats all . the markets can be a wonderful illusion .
cheers ECN.