Thought it worthwhile starting a new thread, as the previous one is getting a bit long. Will put up a few charts on historical zinc data to see the broad picture. Most of these will have been put up before, but may be useful to have them all in the one spot. I don't yet have a view on the supposed upside case for zinc.
First chart below shows a 25 yr history of Zinc prices. Prior to the 2006/7 spike, it shows a sector where supply had always had little trouble meeting demand. Around 2004 it became apparent that China had caught everyone off guard. Zinifex went from $1.80 in April 2004 to over $18 in December 2006. Unfortunately I was stuffing around with some hopeless oilers at the time while others were making a fortune. Some of the Australian fund managers did very well out of it I recall.
It was the only zinc mega action in that 25 yr history and it was very short lived. The price spike wasn't much more than a year long and the equity's one 2/3 yrs long.
As far as I can tell, the bull case for zinc now rests on the premise that the miners have all had a gutful of it. The big mine closures would have been known and anticipated for years now, yet companies have for some reason have given it an avoid?
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