International Lead and Zinc Study GroupZinc - Outlook for...

International Lead and Zinc Study Group



Zinc - Outlook for 2007



Usage



1.Global demand for refined zinc metal is forecast to increase by 4% to 11.45 million tonnes, primarily driven by growth in Asia. Chinese demand is predicted to rise by a further 8.4%, mainly as a consequence of further expansion in the galvanized sheet sector. Usage is also expected to increase in India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan (China) and Thailand.



2.In Europe, rises in usage in the Russian Federation and Spain combined with a recovery in Italy will more than balance a fall in Germany resulting in overall forecast growth of 1.5%. Demand in the United States is expected to be similar to that in 2006.



Supply



1.It is anticipated that increases in a number of countries including Australia, Bolivia, Canada, China, Kazakhstan, Peru, the Russian Federation and the United States will result in a significant rise in global zinc mine output of 9.4% to 11.35 million tonnes.



2.Global refined zinc production is forecast to increase by 6.9% to 11.40 million tonnes. Production in China, where refinery capacity has been expanding rapidly in recent years, is forecast to rise by a significant 14.7% in 2007. Increases are also anticipated in Australia, Belgium, Germany, Mexico, Poland, the Russian Federation and Spain.



3.Trade data for 2007 so far released by the customs authorities in China indicates that there will be a significant increase in Chinese shipments of refined zinc metal in 2007 and it is anticipated that exports will exceed 450,000 tonnes for the first time since 2003.

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