Zinc Price Trend Update: What’s Moving the Market?

Hi everyone,

I wanted to share a fresh look at the zinc price trend—covering the latest data, market drivers, and what this could mean for traders and industrial buyers. Zinc, a crucial metal for galvanization, alloy production, and battery technologies, continues to face price volatility in 2025. As of June, zinc prices are recovering modestly after a downward trend that began earlier this year.

• Current Price (June 2025): $2,660 per tonne
• Recent Low (May 2025): $2,580 per tonne
• 12-Month High: $2,900 per tonne (January 2025)

Market Snapshot

• LME Zinc is trading around $2,640–2,770/tonne, with the 3-month contract near $2,766/tonne as of June 27, 2025.

• IMF data shows global zinc averaging $2,611 in April, down ~9.5% from March and ~4% lower year-on-year .

• SHFE Zinc is close to ¥21,750/tonne (approx +0.35%), while MCX futures in India hover around ₹254.6/kg—up 0.2% on positive sentiment.

What’s Driving These Prices?

1. Supply dynamics

   • Treatment charges dropped sharply to ~$80/tonne from $165 last year—signaling a supply surplus, rather than scarcity.

   • CRU predicts ~1.8% refined production growth versus ~1.9% mine supply growth—pointing to a tight balance.

2. Stock levels

   • LME inventories dropped to ~130 kt in June from ~161 kt in May; SHFE stocks saw a similar descent.

3. Financial sentiment

   • Investors have turned bearish on zinc, shifting net long positions to shorts due to anticipated oversupply in 2025.

4. Geopolitical & macro influences

   • A recent Israel–Iran ceasefire helped lift sentiment, with MCX zinc futures rising modestly.

Historical Trends & Outlook

• Early 2025 surge: price rose above $2,890 before retreating in April.

• Current plateau: trading in the $2,600–2,770 range—tied to inventory drawdowns.
• Medium-term forecast: Analysts expect prices between $2,600–3,100/tonne by Q3 2025. However, oversupply risks could pressure prices later in the year.

Takeaways for Buyers & Investors

• Procurement timing: Short-term dip below $2,600 could create strategic entry points.

• Hedge strategies: Consider structured coverage to navigate volatility.

• Watchful indicators: Monitor treatment charges, inventory levels, and Chinese import flows—they offer early signals.

Would love to hear others’ viewpoints—especially on zinc’s demand outlook in construction and supply trends in India and China. What pricing levels are you watching?

Market Drivers

• China's Economic Activity: Slower industrial output in Q1 2025 affected demand.

• Inventory Levels: LME zinc stockpiles remain low, suggesting possible tightening supply.

• Energy Costs: Cheaper energy inputs have helped keep smelting margins healthy, easing price pressure.

Price Table (Recent Months)

	Month	Zinc Price (USD/tonne)
1	Feb 2025	$2,795
2	Mar 2025	$2,700
3	Apr 2025	$2,625
4	May 2025	$2,580
5	Jun 2025	$2,660

Would love to hear how others are integrating current zinc price chart data into their forecasts or procurement strategies. Thoughts on treatment charges or regional sentiment (China, India, EU)? Drop your insights below!