I can only give you a partial answer. The full terms of the copper offtake agreement haven't been made public to my knowledge, only that Glencore take delivery at the mine gate. So expect there to be some discount reflected in the sales price.
The zinc & lead offtake agreement uses the current LME spot price at the time of shipment, and it's my understanding RVR are responsible for transporting the concentrate 200km to Townsville. I'm not sure how regular the shipments are. I've seen some posters track shipments online before, so it may be possible to work out, but probably much easier just to ask the company.
Crunching some rough numbers on combined sales and taking the average metal prices each quarter, RVR appears to be receiving around 85% of the LME spot for their concentrate. This formula gives $16.6m revenue for the March quarter (vs. $16.4m actual) and $17.2m for the June quarter (vs. $17.3m actual), which then suggests $18.8m in sales for the September quarter, but we haven't seen any concentrate sales figures yet, only production figures.
Important to note these quarterly sales figures are not the same as receipts from customers in the financial reports. Trafigura's first payment was made 30 days after delivery and I'm unsure of Glencore's terms. There's also a note in the annual report regarding zinc & lead metals that final settlement of the sale may occur 1-3 months after first provisional sales invoice, and that 80-90% of sales are hedged for this period - which only adds to the complexity.
Last quarter sales were $17.3m vs receipts of $21.5m. Previous quarter sales were $16.4m (which included first copper concentrates) vs receipts of $11.2m (likely no payment received from Glencore). Prior to that, December quarter sales were not specified - and concentrate figures were given in WMT instead of DMT units, making it difficult to work out - but receipts were $16.9m. Assuming the moisture contents in zinc & lead concentrates are below 10%, the formula mentioned above puts the December quarter sales somewhere between $18.4-20.4m.
To sum it all up, concentrate sales from 11-Oct-17 (first delivery) to 30-Jun-18 look to have been roughly $52.1-$54.1m vs receipts from customers of $49.5m, which would mean $2.6-$4.6m of outstanding receivables prior to the start of this quarter, but not all of the September quarter sales would have been received either.
Production costs were forecast to increase 29% this quarter, and concentrate production did increase 27%. It's a positive that they were on target, but there will also be that extra cost compared to last quarter. It does not look like the results for this quarter will be too good, but either way the company is very undervalued at $93m, so a disappointing result should already be factored in to the SP and any pleasant surprises could come with big upside.
To finish on some positives:
-Zinc & copper prices are currently up 7.2% & 6.0% from the Jul-Sep average (lead is flat)
-Production/throughput is at an all-time high
-Development costs for Far West should be almost be over (we'll know in a few weeks)
-Hopefully the 5mil special crossing after close today spells the end of the big selling
RVR Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
