Thanks very much miningnut for sharing such insightful information with us over the years. I am sure that these are highly appreciated by most of us.
The way I see things is this:
- Enviro Bond @ $160M : I think NCZ said that this figure was too high and they expect it to reduce closer to $55M over time. They have showed us that they are indeed able to reduce this liability through rehabilitation. So, chances are that this will amount will decrease over time (to $55M) without us having to pay anything for it. The rehabilitation costs are already captured in our production costs.
- Hedging Costs @ $175M : How did you arrive at this amount? It is unfortunate for us that we are only getting 35% benefit from these elevated zinc prices. But still, we are still getting a good price for the remaining 65%. But it also works the other way round. I don't expect zinc prices to remain that high till June 2024. So, chances are that the hedging might still be of some benefit to us if zinc prices suffer a substantial drop / crash. Did you assume elevated zinc prices till June 2024?
- Recoveries : I am expecting higher recoveries this quarter. Let's see if they finally deliver on this promise.
Overall, we are making good money. I don't really see the hedging as a liability. For me, we are simply forfeiting some $$$. Before, we were benefiting from all the zinc price upside through the hedging for the 80 kt. We were simply guaranteed a minimum price. It seems this is not the case anymore.
Overall, management has been quite poor, especially with their fixation of doing capital raises at extremely low sp. I have always wondered about this and always found this fishy / extremely strange to see the least. I think this company could have been managed much better. Still, we are in a good enough position imo. Some companies have even worse management.
NCZ Price at posting:
$2.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held