zinc supply crunch, now !!!, page-22

Surprisingly Bullish

According to Macquarie Bank, which organized its own Base Metals Summit as part of Metals Week, the overall mood of people attending was “surprisingly bullish” with a survey of 340 delegates showing a preference for tin, lead and zinc as the metals most likely to perform well next year.

“For the first time since 2008 copper was no longer the favored base (industrial) metal on a 12-month view,” Macquarie said in the latest edition of its newsletter, Commodities Comment.

Copper’s fall was substantial, with just 17% of delegates forecasting it to be the best performing base metal in 2014, three times less than the 54% who preferred copper in last year’s vote.

Equal First

“Tin and Lead, the tightest from a fundamental (supply and demand) standpoint, shared the favorite long position, each polling 28% of votes cast,” Macquarie said.

Aluminum reinforced its position as the favorite short with 39% of delegates listing it as the metal likely to be the worst performer in 2014.

Copper, surprisingly was seen as the second best short with 33% listing it as likely to fall in price.

Zinc Rising Fast

Zinc, which was the least favored metal last year, was the best improver on a percentage basis, lifting its vote from 4% to 12% of delegates who expect it to be the top performer over the next 12 months.

Tin’s rise to equal first with a 28% share of the vote compared with 11% last year. Lead’s rise to match tin’s 28% compared with 13% last year.

Nickel joined aluminum as the metal least likely to perform well with both suffering from chronic over-supply.

Interesting as the opinions of traders and investors at Metals Week are they need to be viewed cautiously because last year’s optimistic forecasts were wide of the mark with all metals, bar one, falling in the 12-months between events.