Based on the scoping study one might make following calculation:
Lifetime of the Mine: 14 Year
Produced Copper p.a.: 55 to 75'000 ton
Cash Cost approx.: 3200 ton
Copper price today roughly: 8000 US$/ton
= net profit of roughly A$ 400-600m per year.
I assume that the will need 400-500m for the start up. I guess they would opt for a JV 50/50 with for example Glencore (very probably).
That means 200-500m of net profit for BTR. Calculated with a conservative PE of 5 the market cap might then be around 1 to 1.5bn or 6 to 9 A$ per share (under the assumption of no further dilution).
Not considered: longer life time of the mine, higher P/E (more favourable stock market environment), higher copper price, higher production rate.
I guess one might flip the story around but at the end the result is more or less the same. BTR in a few years might be worth 1 to 1.5bn (or more).
Ressources update from Kitumba due Q1 2013 will give the next indication in which direction the SP will move. Pre-Feasibility and so on will then accelerate the movement...and not to forget...further good or excellent drilling results will also have an impact on the overall picture !
My favourite scenario is still the same: a really se.xy NPV at the end of the process combined with higher copper prices and recoverd economies around the world and we have a good chance to see a substantial offer from Glencore to take over everything. Probably it will not be 40 A$ per share....but 10 would be also fine (for me).
Obviously before this will happen, a lot of if and whens will have impact on the share price.
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1.9¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $112.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.9¢ | 1.9¢ | 1.8¢ | $210.1K | 11.45M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 7665612 | 1.8¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.9¢ | 1444733 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 7665612 | 0.018 |
16 | 2901182 | 0.017 |
28 | 10350841 | 0.016 |
47 | 11417963 | 0.015 |
17 | 3140114 | 0.014 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.019 | 1444733 | 5 |
0.020 | 5795357 | 5 |
0.021 | 5402396 | 10 |
0.022 | 7139849 | 14 |
0.023 | 601697 | 3 |
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