Zoleo Units in Use, Subscriptions, Royalties and Profits

Part 1 - Units in Use and Subscriptions out to end FY23 (Royalties and Profits to follow on this new thread).

The following are my updated numbers (last shared for comment on 17th August 2021 Post #: 55342376), which IMO are a reasonable basis for estimating future quarterly Royalties and Profits (further analysis to follow shortly) - refer below table for facts and method used:

Quarter	Units Ordered	Units Shipped & Invoiced to JV	Units Starting Plans	Units exiting Plans	Total Units in Use World-wide	Units Starting Use in ANZ	Total Units in Use in ANZ	% in Use in ANZ	Units Starting Use in EU	Total Units in Use in EU	Units Used in NA
3Q FY20	5000	3876	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0	0	0
4Q FY20	5000	2400	1000	0	1000	0	0	0.0%	0	0	1000
1Q FY21	12750	3500	2876	20	3856	160	160	4.1%	0	0	3696
2Q FY21	12500	11500	2400	77	6179	123	283	4.6%	0	0	5896
3Q FY21	12500	8500	3500	124	9555	282	565	5.9%	0	0	8990
4Q FY21	22000	10500	11500	191	20864	725	1290	6.2%	0	0	19574
1Q FY22	27480	13000	8500	417	28947	800	2090	7.2%	0	0	26857
2Q FY22		15500	10500	579	38868	1000	3090	7.9%	0	0	35778
3Q FY22		18000	13000	777	51091	1250	4340	8.5%	0	0	46751
4Q FY22		21000	15500	1022	65569	1500	5840	8.9%	0	0	59729
1Q FY23		24000	18000	1311	82257	1750	7590	9.2%	250	250	74417
2Q FY23		28000	21000	1645	101612	2050	9640	9.5%	924	1174	90798
3Q FY23		32000	24000	2032	123580	2400	12040	9.7%	1474	2648	108892
4Q FY23		37000	28000	2472	149108	2900	14940	10.0%	2248	4896	129273
TOTAL	97230	228776
	Data provided by Beam (some very minor inaccuracies in timing & taking values off graphs likely)
Scope:	This analysis covers Royalties and profits from subscription revenue; not legacy business or product sales
Facts:	Units shipped & Invoiced each Qtr now disclosed by BCC in graph (numbers approx)
	Total Australian subscriptions now disclosed by graph (numbers approx)
	Beam received orders for 69,750 Zoleo devices from the JV and shipped 43,195 units to the end of FY21
	FY20 AR discloses that 6276 units were invoiced and shipped in FY20
	FY21 AR discloses that 33919 units were invoiced in FY21
	Beam also announced on 16 August 2021 that they have received another order from the JV for 27,480 units
	Beam forecasts 15K subscribers across Beam’s territories by end of FY23
	for simplicity the first 1000 units shipped in 2Q FY20 are included in 3Q shippings
Method:	Start with data provided by Beam (Green highlights)
	Adopt Beam's expectation of 15,000 units in use in ANZ by end FY23
	Assume minimal increase in ANZ units during 1Q FY22 due to Covid restrictions
	Allow 1 to 3 quarters (2 quarters on average) to convert orders to "shipped and invoiced"
	Allow 2 more Quarters on average after units are shipped & invoiced before commencing plans
	Use a churn rate in each Quarter of 2% (approx 8% annually) of total units in use
	EU units commencing use is 25% of NA at the same period after sales start in 1Q FY23
	Calculate NA units from total invoiced with phasing, less units in ANZ and EU