I have gone back and looked at several excellent valuation posts by @Access2020, (Post #:55844053, Post #:56004024) plus an earlier one of mine based on Beam's 15,000 ANZ subscribers by June 2023 and using a simple "cheat" method (Post #:56005209).
The great news is that all three methods are giving very similar results:
Post #:55844053 estimates FY23 NPAT of $1.95M from subscription royalties only; not including JV profits or any other profit sources;
Beam themselves estimate FY23 Beam's Operating Profit of $1.65M from subscription royalties only, but only using an ARPU of $29.09 ex-GST;
Post #:56005209 estimates FY23 Beam's Operating Profit of $2.77M from subscription royalties only, when using an ARPU of $40.91 ex-GST. ;
Post #:56004024 estimates Beam's share of FY23 JV profit as $7.8M - I think this is operating profit; not NPAT;
Post #:56240175 estimates Beam's share of FY23 JV operating profit as $5.35M and NPAT of $4.01M.
The lowest of these 3 different methods for FY23 is $1.95M NPAT from royalties, and $4m NPAT from share of JV profits. I think there should be another $1M or so from all the other profit sources for a total of $7M. I don't know about others, but IMO it is very rare to be able to buy into an $18M market cap company with a high probability of generating a $7M NPAT in less than 2 years. Combine this with the quality of profit coming from rapidly growing subscriptions and the offer is even more rare.
BCC Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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