The following are my updated numbers (last shared for comment on 17th August 2021
), which IMO are a reasonable basis for estimating future quarterly Royalties and Profits (further analysis to follow shortly) - refer below table for facts and method used:
| Quarter | Units Ordered | Units Shipped & Invoiced to JV | Units Starting Plans | Units exiting Plans | Total Units in Use World-wide | Units Starting Use in ANZ | Total Units in Use in ANZ | % in Use in ANZ | Units Starting Use in EU | Total Units in Use in EU | Units Used in NA |
| 3Q FY20 | 5000 | 3876 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4Q FY20 | 5000 | 2400 | 1000 | 0 | 1000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1000 |
| 1Q FY21 | 12750 | 3500 | 2876 | 20 | 3856 | 160 | 160 | 4.1% | 0 | 0 | 3696 |
| 2Q FY21 | 12500 | 11500 | 2400 | 77 | 6179 | 123 | 283 | 4.6% | 0 | 0 | 5896 |
| 3Q FY21 | 12500 | 8500 | 3500 | 124 | 9555 | 282 | 565 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | 8990 |
| 4Q FY21 | 22000 | 10500 | 11500 | 191 | 20864 | 725 | 1290 | 6.2% | 0 | 0 | 19574 |
| 1Q FY22 | 27480 | 13000 | 8500 | 417 | 28947 | 800 | 2090 | 7.2% | 0 | 0 | 26857 |
| 2Q FY22 |
| 15500 | 10500 | 579 | 38868 | 1000 | 3090 | 7.9% | 0 | 0 | 35778 |
| 3Q FY22 |
| 18000 | 13000 | 777 | 51091 | 1250 | 4340 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | 46751 |
| 4Q FY22 |
| 21000 | 15500 | 1022 | 65569 | 1500 | 5840 | 8.9% | 0 | 0 | 59729 |
| 1Q FY23 |
| 24000 | 18000 | 1311 | 82257 | 1750 | 7590 | 9.2% | 250 | 250 | 74417 |
| 2Q FY23 |
| 28000 | 21000 | 1645 | 101612 | 2050 | 9640 | 9.5% | 924 | 1174 | 90798 |
| 3Q FY23 |
| 32000 | 24000 | 2032 | 123580 | 2400 | 12040 | 9.7% | 1474 | 2648 | 108892 |
| 4Q FY23 |
| 37000 | 28000 | 2472 | 149108 | 2900 | 14940 | 10.0% | 2248 | 4896 | 129273 |
| TOTAL | 97230 | 228776 |
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| Data provided by Beam (some very minor inaccuracies in timing & taking values off graphs likely) | |
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| Scope: | This analysis covers Royalties and profits from subscription revenue; not legacy business or product sales |
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| Facts: | Units shipped & Invoiced each Qtr now disclosed by BCC in graph (numbers approx) |
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| Total Australian subscriptions now disclosed by graph (numbers approx) |
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| Beam received orders for 69,750 Zoleo devices from the JV and shipped 43,195 units to the end of FY21 |
| FY20 AR discloses that 6276 units were invoiced and shipped in FY20 |
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| FY21 AR discloses that 33919 units were invoiced in FY21 |
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| Beam also announced on 16 August 2021 that they have received another order from the JV for 27,480 units |
| Beam forecasts 15K subscribers across Beam’s territories by end of FY23 |
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| for simplicity the first 1000 units shipped in 2Q FY20 are included in 3Q shippings |
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| Method: | Start with data provided by Beam (Green highlights) |
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| Adopt Beam's expectation of 15,000 units in use in ANZ by end FY23 |
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| Assume minimal increase in ANZ units during 1Q FY22 due to Covid restrictions |
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| Allow 1 to 3 quarters (2 quarters on average) to convert orders to "shipped and invoiced" |
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| Allow 2 more Quarters on average after units are shipped & invoiced before commencing plans |
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| Use a churn rate in each Quarter of 2% (approx 8% annually) of total units in use |
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| EU units commencing use is 25% of NA at the same period after sales start in 1Q FY23 |
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| Calculate NA units from total invoiced with phasing, less units in ANZ and EU |
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(20min delay)