Revenue Notes $1,700,000.00 Q1 - Q2 actual $15,600,000.00 Q3 actual $11,000,000.00 April actual b2b $1,500,000.00 April actual animal $11,000,000.00 May b2b $2,000,000.00 May animal $3,500,000.00 May b2c $11,000,000.00 June b2b $3,000,000.00 June animal $3,500,000.00 June b2c $63,800,000.00 FY20 Share price estimate $4.98 PE 30 Or using this proxy Revenue Per week Q4 = 13 weeks FY20* $3m a week $ 39,000,000.00 $68,800,000.00 Share price estimate $5.41 PE 30 $4m a week $ 52,000,000.00 $81,800,000.00 Share price estimate $6.38 PE 30 * from above actuals to date ~ $29.8m
I was playing around with alternative ways to calculate revenues and came up with this given we have actual revenues to end of April of ~ $29.8m which is far and away more than most of us ever assumed.
Basically extrapolated April's numbers for May - June to derive $63.8m FY20 = $4.98.
Then decided to use revenue of $3 - $4m per week using April's numbers of $12.5m/4 weeks = $3m (and there was no B2C in April other than a few days from 24/4 - 30/4. So I added a little to come to $4m per week. Given there are 13 weeks in Q4, and a week is a material amount of $ and add in actuals to date you get revenues of $68.8m - $81.8 m.
This gives share price ranging from $4.93 - $6.38 using a PE of 30.
Obviously, there are lots of variables and you have to make assumptions (margins, OPEX, PE ratio (could argue for PE of 35 - 50 if growth story is believed by MR Market). Given we are really in the business of B2B and Animal health maybe Mr Market is waiting to see what sales we can do in these markets.
Even if revenue for Fy20 is $55m Sp is $4.22 on PE of 30
See what you think.
Theme is we are undervalued and shares are being accumulated on the quiet by the big boys be they ML, Bank of America, Lumyna etc.
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