AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-3

Weekly Review U Stocks - 18th Feb 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.

Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.

Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:




Weekly Review

Key Observations:

Weekly Percentage change

• Overall it was not a good week for U stocks
• Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage loss was 6%. Last week there was gain of 4%. So 2 weeks of weekly gains of 4 and 2% have been nullified this week
• AGE lost 7% for the week. Last week AGE had lost 1%, so 2 weeks of losses for us.
• In previous weeks, stocks which were part of the Global fund were behaving somewhat in block, I believe the short term impacts of that Fund is now over or getting over

Yearly Percentage change

• Most stocks are in red for the year
• Average loss for 15 stocks I track is now 11%. Last week it was loss of 5%, so losses increasing
• For the current year, only AEE, AGE and DLC in positive territory.
• AGE is doing well with a gain of 15% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 24% gain, so a drop there
• BMN, TOE and 92e have now lost nearly 25% of their value from year start - not a good sign

Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start

• All stocks much below their highest SP
• Average drop is 46% (last week was 43% - so slight gain here). This means most stocks have lost halved from their peak
• AGE has dropped 45%. So now we are nearly in line with others

IMPORTANT NOTE

• Shares are in downtrend now after 2 weeks of slight uptrend
• Shares included in Global Funds ETFs had similar movements for last few weeks, now I feel they are on their own
• For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 2 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. They have provided a much needed boost otherwise shares were languishing
• Shares are not able to keep gains from these incidents. Eg CCJ last week a very positive announcement pushed SP from around 19.80 to around 23.80, a gain of nearly $4. Yesterday CCJ closed at 20.22, so a gain is now just 42c and it has lost 90% of gain. For traders these incidents provide opportunity for sell if they think that the rise will not be sustained. In both the incidents I did sell a fair few.
• The U Futures has stagnated around $44.05. I feel unless we see a sustained rise here, a rise in stock SP may not be maintained
• The most crucial aspect of boom is Supply/Demand. After reading a lot, I have come to the conclusion that this is a totally grey area with most pundits having no clue for short term. Long term supply crunch would come, but nobody knows what is that long term, is it weeks, months, years. I think unless we know more about this, we will not get a sustained. Probably the start of long term contracting may provide a view

Personally

• I am in wait stage before I pick up shares for trading
• Eg AGE sitting at centre of my trading zone of 5.9 to 6.7c. I would like to see one of these firmed before buying. These numbers may not mean much to others but I use them for my trading

Weekly Ahead

SP

• We are in decline, so have to get out from a downtrend.
• The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 5.9c , 6.7c, 7.8c.
• The key for me at this stage is to get to 6.7c
• What we have to be careful about - Last week I thought it does not look like happening this time, but another drop this week and touching 6.1c has brought it a bit closer. So something to keep in mind - in case. After reaching 8.4c on 9th Nov, it finally made a bottom of 4.8c on 6th Dec and then slowly moved up. On 13th Jan it touched 8.1c and then made another bottom of 5.2c on 28th Jan. Really hoping we don't have to see the 5s again.
• DOW/ASX is still very volatile. Lots of talks still around corrections/bear/recession etc.
• Some local factor like drill results, something with Traxys would be good at this stage to buoy the stocks

Prediction

• A volatile week ahead and difficult to predict where we will be
• From trading perspective, some wild swings can provide gains. But if one is not trading both ways (for gains and shorting), and ifs only for gains, then need to pick the right times as the sector itself is in decline for the year.