Thanks Rob. Fully understood on the educated guess aspect - I'd call it more doing your own research and looking through the data.
Just as an aside, when expressed as BOE I have total 2016 as 205,148 and your's calcs to 226,702 which narrows the production differential .... I'll take the midpoint of both for future iterations of the model until more data is released. And yes as far as the OAS PDNP to be recompleted, we can only do a WAG on that.
Putting the midpoint for oil (177,350) and gas (231,448) puts that pesky Debt/EBITDAX estimate I have on the SSN+OAS proforma just below 4x (3.97) at $50 oil.
Using your production estimate for 2016, @50 oil its 3.73x and @$45 its 4.83x. Shows just how important the acquisition is to SSN's future. Without it the multiples are 7.87 and 10.9x respectively.
Got no answer on the Q4 hedging - I was just using the open hedges for Oct-Dec. Would have thought that Aug hedges were recognized for Q3 (I'm not watching for when it goes into the bank as cash on production either). I have a total of 31,903 Bbls hedged. We might be using different terminology - I'm representing just the gain on the hedging over the expected realized cost.
i.e. 4,303 Bbls swaps at $105.
I'm counting the gain as 4,303*($105- $38.5) = $286,149.50
and 27,600 Bbls on 3-way Collar
I'm counting the gain as 27,600*($45-$38.50) = $179,400
Total Realized Hedging gain in the Qtr of $465,550. Be good if there is more to add so that covenants are not breached.
GFTA (as in Good Fortune To All) as I think it may be down to fortune favors the brave (and yes I know fools tread yada yada...)
SSN Price at posting:
0.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
