I've posted before about what I would be looking for as signals to a Phase III success and to summarise it was to....
Mark the date of full enrolment which we now know to be 13/10/2016 or thereabouts.
Wait 16 weeks and see if they announce trial completion.
If they announced trial completion, get scared and run away from Starpharma as the trial is likely a failure.
The reason I say that is because they have the 12 week follow up period to check for secondary endpoints and that is only done as far as I know if they are still BV free.
Now why I beleive Starpharma has signalled a Phase III failure is because they indicated trial completion is expected Q1 2017. The fact is if things go as well as they could trial completion should not be expected until 27/04/2017 by my calculation, assuming that full enrolment happened today. Of course you can give or take time off that depending on your own speculation of when full enrolment occured.
The way to refute this prediction i would imagine is the beleif that trial completion is at the point of meeting the primary endpoint. Would it be likely that trial completion be recorded at the end of primary endpoint or secondary enpoints?
SPL Price at posting:
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