Value - a tough one to work out, page-3

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Smurph

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15/09/17

21:09

Post #: 27257172
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Originally posted by Aristarchus ↑

We have heard, regading SPL value, "how do you value the length of a piece of string" or something like that. And I agree, how do you value what an SPL share could be worth? You can use all sorts of models - like a discounted cash flow model; a "blue sky" model to mention 2 or a simple P/E ie "price to earnings" model in the same way that banks and the like tend to get valued by investors. Ratios like 11-13 to 1 are usual for banks and the like.

Say you go down that route, and here YOU MUST BEAR IN MIND this is just playing with hypothetical numbers as nothing is certain - what Earnings will you work on. Lets take the mentioned (on this site) $1.75billion market for VivaGel and related products. SPL or partners can't get 100% of that, no one can. So say thay get a huge share 75% for retail revenue of around $900,000,000. What is the NET PROFIT to SPL out of this? I'm not familiar with margins in the pharma arena but I would think a very optimistic figure would be Net of $500,000,000 after all costs depreciation and stuff.

How does this translate to earnings per share - Well you have to guess about payout ratio but take a silly 100% payout ratio - so dividend of $500,000,000 into roughly 350,000,000 shares or $1.42/share/pa

An interesting share value if you work on even 10:1 P/E. Thats $14/share - Nice

Say you take this as silly numbers and halve it, still not so bad if $7/share is acheived.

Now halve it again, $3.50/share - not bad either on one product line.

NOW A WARNING - you cannot invest on the above numbers etc - it is just a conversation on numbers that are being thrown around - you MUST do your own research and arrive at your own opinion of value and work with that.

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I believe spl are going to license vivagel so these figures are ridiculous. Work on 10 to 15% of sales which may take several years to achieve. Not down ramping. I am a holder and have been for several years but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Love to hear your thoughts ab. An opinion well researched and respected

SPL Price at posting: $1.04 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 10.0¢		Change 0.001(1.01%)		Mkt cap ! $41.82M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.8¢	10.0¢	9.8¢	$5.878K	59.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	62762	9.8¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.0¢	6583	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	62762	0.098
2	39009	0.097
1	80000	0.096
2	260526	0.095
3	223398	0.094

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.100	6583	2
0.105	220500	4
0.110	226366	4
0.115	62192	3
0.120	55000	3

Last trade - 13.38pm 15/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

SPL (ASX) Chart

Value - a tough one to work out, page-3

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Value - a tough one to work out, page-3

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