The Impending Boom, page-363

Hi SF@HC,
"Do you think that MS may have used Macquarie's 2014 data for their 2018 note (cant call in analysis)."

I have no idea what they used, but a common theme seems that the analysts do not go into great detail of how they got their numbers, (ie 400,000t of LCE by 2022-5) seems to be it. then they say assuming a market penetration of x% EVs by the same year.

The real questions are how they worked out how much lithium per EV and for me the easiest way to do this is look at what the major companies are planning. If they talk 600-1000km per charge, then they are talking a lot of lithium/EV. If talking 50-200km/EV it is a lot less. Also when looking at the Chinese numbers, BEVs are gaining a large percentage gain over hybrids, yet the mainstream analysts seem to think current trends of lots of hybrids will continue.
IMO this is poor thinking as having the weight of dual motor and battery, is likely to be more expensive in mass production than battery only (plus many more moving parts). Long distance batteries also take out range anxiety of older EVs with limited range.
The Chinese are leading and I'll bet that the major car companies are paying a lot of attention on which way that market is moving.

From VW...."When “Roadmap E” was launched last fall, Volkswagen announced plans to build up to three million electric vehicles annually by 2025 and market 80 new electric Group models."
from....
https://electrek.co/2018/03/13/vw-electric-vehicle-production-plan-battery-cell-contracts/

Assuming that goes to plan, then do analysts really think VW is going to have 25% of the world EV market in 2025, when they only represent ~12% of all cars now?

Another aspect that never seems to be discussed by analysts is oil prices. Just paying minimal attention to what is happening on that front, shows a lot of predictions for an oil price spike somewhere in the 2020-2022 time frame by by companies like Hallyburton, that cite a huge lack of oil infrastructure spending over the last 4 years since oil prices crashed below $US100/bbl.
Whenever the next spike in oil prices happen, if people start having to pay more than $2/litre, then an EV with solar panels on the roof of the house will look VERY attractive price wise!! Of course oil prices always seem to be assumed to stay around current levels in the lithium analysts analysis, despite the fact we are nearing the end of the glut of the last 4 years (Brent crude hovering just under $US70/bbl).