so what is inp worth per share

Hi all

Having done a detail review well drilled in PEL 103 I have calculated the following possible inplace reserves.

P90 = 131 million

Pmean = 186 million

P10 = 263 million

These numbers are conservative calculated as the net reservoir thickness used only assumes that Tirrawarra sandstone is produced and no contribution from the underlying Patchawarra sandstone.

My gut feel is that the actual oil inplace will be towards the top end i.e. P10 or greater.

Any way using the P10 reserves number we can do some back of the envelope calculations on what INP shares should be worth. The key will be the recovery factor i.e. what percentage will be recoverable.

I think we can assume 20% (other fields are over 30%) so 263 times 20% = 52.6 million barrels recoverable times oil price (AUD 130) = AUD 6.8 billion times INP percentage of PEL 103 (75%) = AUD 5.1 billion divided by number of issued shares (184,053,040) =

Value of the oil field per share = AUD 27.86 per share.

This assumes no development cost or government take.

Ball park INP will lose some 60% (excise tax 40% and development 20%) so net value =

Is around AUD 11.15 per share assuming only 20% recovery, if its 30% recovery then add another five bucks and if its only 10% recovery it only worth five bucks.

Make current share price of AUD 1.20 look cheap.

cheers

PC43

PS I will not be selling any time soon.