Ann: Market Update, page-10

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/shine-good-chance-of-a-significant-positive-catalyst

So in this article and the comments below the analyst makes some rough estimates - though his exact numbers vary depending on the if disbursement funding is included and if you count the potential "cut" that shine would take as the sole funder in the potential write-off.

So the number varies a lot, and admittedly I'm using a optimistic estimate including all disbursement liabilities and the loss of the "cut". He also writes about in "extinguishing" a debt of 43m (essentially all of shine's debt) in the positive scenario.

Keep in mind too that his numbers could quite well be conservative, just as you mentioned, given that the article was written on 30th May last year - meaning the significant amount of delay in the case, mediation costs, class closure defense, even the charges associated with notifying/alerting potential class members (as suggested by the judge), amendments to the statement of claim and all the other extensive fees that lawyers can come up with over this period of post-trial mediation could easily add millions. At the time of writing the analyst, like most, was expecting a speedier and less costly (or profitable) resolution.

I'm still very confident of a positive settlement - don't get me wrong - I'm just looking at the potential downside as well to kill the time while I wait. I'll be holding for likely 6 months post ann anyway.

In other news the Quakers Hill nursing home class action has reached a 1.1m settlement (to be court approved) which is a positive and the numbers in the AMS class action (mentioned in the recent SMH articleon J&J) are growing very strongly as are the registered claimants in the ethicon case.