Yes I thought a very good read on the state of the industry, hence was a little surprised at the initial response. Anyway not worries.
What caught my attention was some of the statistics such as this below. While the odds may still be against ACW and any therapy commercialization probably years away the size of the market and lack of participants may mean that the shareholder value transaction is completed earlier. AD treatment is holy grail stuff, a company that treats it corners the market and becomes a multi billion dollar co. Big pharma obviously know this better than anyone so would at a minimum be monitoring progress of any hopefuls. It's all business for them so they can apply a risk weighting and valuation based on the chance of success. If we assume a therapy that works is worth $1b (likely much more) then at the current MC you would assume a ~95% chance of failure. The news last week I thought raised the chance of success above 5% so would think further upside is likely to be seen in the near term. Perhaps overly simplistic but hey I'm no expert in this field.
According to the Alzheimer’s Association, the 2019 costs to the nation associated with AD will be about $277 billion. About half of this cost will be paid by Medicare, and another significant chunk by Medicaid. Unless there is a treatment breakthrough, total costs may reach $1.1 trillion by 2050.
ACW Price at posting:
5.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
