Hi All,
While we wait for the flow testing equipment to be setup (I'm assuming it's not yet given there hasn't been an announcement) & then for the flow test itself (c. 2 weeks for final result) I was doing some work on a possible takeover target amount last night that I want to share.
The clear & obvious comparison is the "Waitsia" discovery by AWE in 2017.
AWE owned 50% of the project (Origin Energy which was ultimately Beach Energy owning the other 50%) which attracted 3 separate, independent bids from different companies.
The 3 parties who made bids were:
- Mitsui (eventual winner at $602m all-cash)
- Mineral Resources ($526m)
- China Energy Reserve & Chemicals Group ($463m)
Note that these offers were for 50% of the Waitsia discovery -
The discovery itself wad an estimated 844BCF of gas and flowed at 90mcfpd (90m cubic feet-a-day - from the Waitsia-4 well)
Compare this to WGO/STX Discovery
The size of the WGO/STX discovery had pre-drill resource estimates greater than 1TCF of gas (i.e. larger than Waitsia)
The drill results Exceeded their pre-drill estimates and when comparing to the Waitsia-4 well the Gross/Net pay zones are as follows:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Waitsia-4 WE-2 1 Wagina Gross/Net (m) 107/0 79/10 2 Kingia Gross/Net (m) 42/21 97/58 3 HC Gross/Net (m) 54/ 22/10 4 Porosity (%) - Kingia/HC >11 14/10 5 Permiability (mD) - Kingia/GC >10 102
The major positive differences with WGO/STX vs Waitsia is that the net pay zone in the Kingia zone is 276% larger!! (i.e. 58m net pay v 21m net pay). The net pay zone in the Wagina for WGO/STX is just an added bonus too
Also, the porosity / permeability readings compare very favorably against the Waitsia discovery.
The only variable outstanding is the flow rate - for which we are about to test.
Now... Speculation Time...
WE-2 was larger in pre-drill estimates, exceeded those estimates and has more net pay than the Waitsia discovery.
50% of Waitsia was sold for $602m in an all-cash offer.
Arguably, WE-2 should be worth at-least $602m (or 85 cents per share)
The other very bullish part about where we are in time is that the first Takeover Offer for AWE's Waitsia project came 3 days after the successful flow test
Now is absolutely the business end of the adventure!
All IMO & DYOR
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- WGO
- Possible Take-Out Price
Possible Take-Out Price
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 44 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add WGO (ASX) to my watchlist
Currently unlisted public company.
The Watchlist
CCO
THE CALMER CO INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Anthony Noble, CEO
Anthony Noble
CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online