Hi to the few survivors who continue to post. A lot of well-known names appear to have left the building - or jumped the sinking ship, to be more apt.
I've sold one-third of my holding at a substantial loss; contemplating another third. This is based on my view there is more chance to recoup losses elsewhere than to sit here and hope.
I still for the life of me can't see how FAR rebuilds from here. Well, I can, but it would require a complete change of the rotten luck we've experienced for the past five years. SNE is now a goner; Cath's 'we've been proud to help Senegal' piece in the quarterly was as close to a eulogy as you'll get. We either manage to flog it or we default and walk away (but at a hefty cost, as outlined in the quarterly). Best scenario I can see is:
> Negotiate with Cairn to market and sell a decent whack of SNE. Who except for Woodside would want 13.7 per cent?
> Negotiate a decent farm-in for The Gambia that leaves us with a reasonable percentage of whatever might be discovered (40 per cent?).
> Make that elusive big discovery in The Gambia. We are continually told the source rocks are there and there is evidence of oil migration, but the next drill simply must deliver big time.
> Hope some miracle occurs and oil spikes alarmingly. The only miracle I can foresee is a massive Middle East conflict - or US v China, I guess (Taiwan being the obvious flashpoint) - but really, who wants to barrack for a war to save a share price.
The Chairman talked about protecting the value of our investment. He must have missed the bit where poor decisions and rotten luck destroyed 80 per cent of the value that had been there at one point.
This is dismal. Really dismal.
OOO
PS: Have changed my sentiment to reflect my actions.
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