warning...oil may fall to $20, page-37

Oil falling to $25, what rot. Last year these very same prophets were saying it would hit $200. Naturally after getting their positions set to take advantage of whomever might heed their word

Now that oil has been moving in the reverse direction they want to gain some profit from the short side. Thus the nudge by way of a forecast.

These days whenever I hear a forecast from a fund or a broking house it simply tells me they have already taken a position for a movement in that direction, and their widely read prophesy will probably give it a bit of inertia

I call this "market manipulation" and the obvious test is to check their accuracy in the months ahead. Back test them, if you like, and when this is done they rarely look too good.

Good fortune rains on oil consumers at the moment, and it has absolutely nothing to do with oil fundamentals. Whereas it has everything to do with an across the board sentiment for all things coming out of the ground.

Given that oil is vital to our way of life, and that the total quantity in reserve is finite, and that demand will hardly abate, then simply logic dictates that our present good fortune is temporary

However, during this lull time I guess we will have to suffer a few prophesies now and then from a variety of carpetbaggers. Who by the way, mostly reside in New York