ADN pre-DFS target of $0.26 to $0.35, page-54

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16/09/20

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Post #: 47387163
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Originally posted by wombat777: ↑

I think you are missing the pricing range we have been given together with the margins.

We have been told pricing in the range of AUD $1,000 to AUD $5,000 per tonne.

I think that means basket price will sit somewhere in the $1,200 to $2,200 per tonne band. Basket price is just the average across all tonnes sold at various purity levels.

We have also been told that expected margin is 80%.

80% margin on say $1,200 basket price would be $960 per tonne gross profit.

80% margin on say $1,800 basket price would be $1,440 per tonne gross profit.

For context profit per tonne on PFS figures is $346 per tonne (so you can see how easily based on the examples above how the could easily trip or quadruple the PFS figures).

So it all comes down to ... what will the basket (or average) price be across their range of products ... ?

View attachment 2484704

I can play with basket pricing inputs and margin inputs and you can see the sort of basket pricing required to drive growth in NPAT compared to the PFS.

I certainly think 3 to 4 times the PFS figures is in the realms of possible ...

(the only problem is, this calculation throws out the AISC compared to the PFS figures)

View attachment 2484761

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Thanks Wombat - now fully understand - thanks again for taking the time to explain that!

ADN Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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ADN pre-DFS target of $0.26 to $0.35, page-54

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