This is not in any way financial or investment advice, it is purely my own calculations and opinions for my own personal use, that I’m sharing with others.Always remember to do your own research and don’t base your investment decisions from people you’ve never met. I've been an ADN holder since early this year.
My 2025 ‘in production’ share price target for ADN is $5.24. This is calculated using a discounted cash flow method for combined Great White, Hammerhead and Mt Hope. There are a number of assumptions contained within the calculations, where numbers are available from the PFS or mineral resource estimates/other announcements I have used those, however where numbers aren’t available e.g. size of HPA, concrete and carbon capture I’m putting in an estimate based on what I believe appears reasonable reading between the lines of interviews/presentations, and will update where new information comes to light in the form of offtake agreements.
In the most recent presentation and interviews, James consistently says that nanotechnology applications sell for “several million $ per tonne”, and also refers to carbon capture being in the medium term.So it may be seen as optimistic but I have included it, because he doesn’t BS, so if he’s saying it’s possible them I’m including that upside.
Please keep in mind I don’t have the knowledge of the operation like other posters here, and also as you know we have been receiving numbers upon numbers from all angles, so hopefully I have it as accurate as I can, but obviously any feedback is welcome.
My 2025 share price target for Great White deposit is $2.42
I have separated zones between Halloysite and Main in the same proportion as Hammerhead, given that we’ve been told the deposits are very similar. In the halloysite zone I’ve allocated a small amount to carbon capture/nanotech as we’ve been told this is a mid term application.A small allocated to HPA with the remainder to concrete.In the main zone I have assumed the entire amount is allocated to ceramics.The dividends paid are hypothetical based on the adjusted EPS (allows for margin of safety).
My 2025 share price target for Hammerhead is also $2.42
Using the halloysite and main zone splits as per 29/9 announcement, I’ve applied the same product weighting as per Great White.As far as we know these deposits appear similar. The main difference is the much larger mine life, however I’ve assumed the same annual tonnage.
My 2025 share price target for Mt Hope is $0.40
For Mt Hope, I’ve used 3 different zones – Halloysite, Main and Ultra-Bright, using information from the mineral resource announcement on 11/8 and the results from concrete and coatings testing on 12/11. In the ultra-bright zone I’ve allocated the entire amount to coatings/polymers at $1,000/t, the halloysite zone to concrete, and the main zone to ceramics which we were told is similar to Great White
Whenever creating models I always build in levels of conservatism, which is important for my risk management and comfort with my investment. The levels of conservatism I’ve applied are below:
·I have excluded Camel Lake and other halloysite deposits, as well as gold and copper projects.Excluding Camel Lake which has been talked about as ‘pure halloysite’ alone makes this very conservative
·In terms of annual tonnage at Great White and Hammerhead, I’ve applied only 700t for nanotechnology, 2.5kt of HPA, and less than 40kt of concrete.Numbers that have been used in various interviews and presentations suggest it could be far larger than this
·I’ve applied no future changes in product composition for the above applications.I would think that the longer the projects go on the more higher value applications are as a proportion of annual tonnage
·I’ve allocated the entire halloysite zone at Mt Hope to concrete.There may be opportunities for higher value applications in HPA and nanotech
·I’ve left AISC per tonne at $354 for all products, we’ve been told that some applications like concrete require less processing and therefore opex
·I’ve applied a Margin of Safety of 50%, thus reducing the overall base case numbers by half
·I’ve used a PE of 25.Others have said 30 is likely, but I’ve stayed more conservative
·Carbon capture/nanotechnology has been mentioned as “several million dollars per tonne”, where I have included it in the numbers I have the price as 1 million not several million
That’s it, my intuition tells me that longer term we’ll be multiples of what I have here, and as I said any feedback is welcome.Always do your own research.God speed.
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