General comments/chat, page-18280

As I wrote on this thread previously, ADN's market cap (even with recent price falls) is still very, very expensive compared to peers IMO.

I know that the companies are not directly comparable and ADN potentially has blue sky (as yet unquantified/unproven), however if you compare its Project metrics (most recently published NPV of Project compared to market cap) to a number of the others it will show just how overvalued ADN currently is compared to peers IMO. By way of example, yesterday a peer listed on the ASX published a DFS - the market cap of their Project is USD 1 billion, their current market cap is only $185 million, and I consider that they are more advanced than ADN with their Project. It is a HPA project and ADN has mentioned that they may look at HPA as an additional product stream. Also yesterday another ASX listed kaolin co announced a non binding MOU with a large Chinese ceramic co - I didn't take much notice of the announcement but it does demonstrate that there is some competition in this space.

Someone posted on here the other day that ADN offered 98% reward, 2% risk. When I read the post, I immediately thought to myself that I would have characterised it as closer to the opposite - 98% risk and 2% reward.

Shorting of ADN has increased recently since shorters now have a source from whom to borrow the stock (institutions who were obliged to buy ADN when it was included in the All Ords Index). However, you have to ask yourself the question 'Why are the shorters keen to short ADN?' Shorting can be riskier than going long since potential losses are open ended (this can be managed with stop loss orders). I doubt that anyone posting on this thread is a shorter since, as far as I am aware, the institutions who hold stock don't lend it to individuals (lending out of the stock involves full credit assessment of the borrower - in this case the shorter).

Posters on here talk about the $1 party - I wish you luck however I wonder how many of you have actually thought about what that means - ADN already has approx. 2.1 billion shares on issue - a $1 party implies a market cap of approx. 2.1 billion! And that's not taking into account any further share issue for project financing, working capital etc. The only way I can conceivably envisage $1 is by way of share consolidation.

GLTA & DYOR