General comments/chat, page-24123

I'll give you a hand to understand. Between early February and early March, the shares moved from 27 to 31 valuing the company at $700million. The last stated post tax NPV for Great White was $511m at the AGM so 75% of that is $383million. You also need to deduct ongoing corporate (non project) costs but think about some of the "blue sky" positives not contained in that last seen PFS. So in early March, after another project update (1/3/21) the stockmarket thought that the blue sky (HPA etc) less ongoing central costs + other projects was worth $315million. A bit rich at that stage. In the second week of March, smart folks who look at indices realised the market value was likely going to mean ADN inclusion in All Ords to be announced on 12th March & buying to be done by COB 19th March. That's what happened so there was big trade on 11th, huge on 12th, and enormous all the next week until the gargantuan climax on 19th March with 52million traded and the shares at 41c. At that price, the company was valued at ~$900m - way too high at the time and with plenty of capital to raise to build the project (which is now changing). So you had folks shorting all that week. Vanguard, as the largest index player bought ~50million shares. To them, it doesn't matter whether ADN is cheap, expensive or neither. With the buying satiated, that was obviously the top. It also coincided with some silly stuff on here ("Poochera $1 party" etc) which I hope didn't suck you in. All the shares did for a while was retrace the price back to where it was before the index stuff - mid to high 20's. So the easy short - which I played in - was done. However, any professional investor could have told you the company would need to raise money fairly soon for a variety of reasons and the shares got smoked down to 16-18c in early May. A lot of that was just a "pile-on" which reached a crescendo in early May (a 46m share volume day on 5th for example). I picked some up then and traded them out in the mid 20's. From there I just waited, but there was information galore on here and twitter that a CR was probably imminent AND WHY. Nobody got the magnitude of it correct. None of that was/is material non-public information. In fact some of the folks on here would have better access to information (via the company) that is borderline "material" non-public than some of the shorters except in the last days pre-the raise. So now at 15c, you ADN is valued at $354million, the company has $33m in the bank (+maybe $15mn to come) so you are paying $320m for a project with a last disclosed post tax NPV to ADN of $383m. But since that NPV release, you've had two BoA's which(if you accept China risk which some don't) & a series of announcements which suggest some of the 'blue sky" might not be so far out. So a professional investor looking for something different, if they can accept the China risk - each to their own - would be quite interested around here. When you strip all this down, it's simple. the shares got way overvalued because of the index inclusion & availability of borrow made it a classic short. From here, unless there are company specific hiccups - delays, plant failure, BoAs that are not, cost overruns - in other words, the usual mine risks, the short interest will dissipate. Finally, very little of what happened was BS. There was more BS thrown at me on this thread for pointing out a few things at the time, although more recently, that has dwindled. Sure, some shorters had a bit of a go, but no more so than you blokes the other way. I'm going to check out of this thread for a while - nothing bad, just unlikely to be able to add much for the time being.