titanic thursday, page-26

I am using photobucket for the first time so forgive me if first attempts fail.

Why won't the markets fall and where is the upside target?

The first chart shows the SPI/XJO prem/disc on a daily close basis and with about 30 pts discount most days since the Jun top the sentiment is too bearish for any sustained decline. When it switches to a solid premium then it may allow a bigger and more prolonged decline. I say may because while the discount is best for continuing upside, modest premiums would eventually be "normal" and only excessive prems a call for bear move.

The second chart shows a 5 period RSI (in red) giving a change to bullish in mid Mar and remaining bullish ever since. Yes it is high again and tonights action might be a bit of a blow off that allows some downside/consolidation next.

In May and Jun and now Jul (and was it it Apr too) weekly and monthly dynamic levels as I have them signalled targets in the 4100's with in each case daily starting to line up with that price as well. In the prior months each time it never quite made it and we fell back. Well here we are looking similar again!

As far as cycles go, I have Armstrong and my 128 month cycle pointing down. The presidential 4 year cycle is due to top any time now on into Sep with Aug being centre. That leaves decennial 10 year left as the only hold out into Nov this year. With the 30 month cycle due for a sharp Apr/may 2010 bottom and the 40 year cycle rolling over, I can't see Laundry's upmove into Aug next year as any chance but if he is correct then my cycles will fail for the first time since I began using them in th 1980's.