What largely determines FMG (likewise all IO plays) share price on any given day is the spot IO price and the perceived forward looking future price of iron ore not the stuff in the rear view mirror.
If there is hardly any seaborne trade to support the IO spot price in the next week or two (meaning no demand for IO continuously being piled up at Pilbara ports), the IO price will tank and the 2022 Jan contract will also tank.
Again, all eyes on one thing that truely matters. Seaborne trade volumes don't lie.
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