INVICTUS ENERGY LTD (ASX:IVZ) - Ann: Notification regarding unquoted securities - IVZ, page-39 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by SugeKnight: ↑

"There might be another farm in partner willing to kick in for some more WI."

That would be a disaster. There will be nothing left % wise from the pie for IVZ

Also, you are assuming IVZ finds the entire 8TCF with your figures + the entire estimate for second target (that's being too optimistic)

Prior to recently, everyone would have been over the moon with 1TCF found which is approx $1B enterprise value according to my understanding. (Correct me if wrong)

But if IVZ are giving away so much % (and if a new partner joins), it would be a disaster as it would cap the profits and value of IVZ.

At present, Cluff gets a part, gov gets a part (of profit) and geo associates get a part. That's already too much % given away for a high risk / high reward play.

For Muzarabani (the 8TCF), the CoS (chance of success) from memory was only 11%.

So now it's high risk / low reward , instead of high risk / high reward IMO. I wanted a life changing opportunity

Initially if 1TCF (or a $B valuation) was found we would have 10 bagged. Where as now the SP might only go up 200m as an example after all the calculations are done (that's just a figure off the top of my head - no actual calcs done - just making the point)

If the discovery is less/smaller, before it would have still been great (multi bag). Whereas now, IVZ might come out fairly valued at the end after all calculations are done.

Ofcourse there's a chance to find more than 1TCF (let's not forget the prospective resource report stated there was a 50% chance the resource would be greater than stated) - but there's also a chance to find nothing.

It's still the same gamble that it was, but it was more attractive without Cluff devaluing the project - but whats done is done. I think some of us (including me) were over optimistic to begin with and maybe we overvalued the project, whereas now it's fairly valued.

Just to give a better understanding of this:
IVZ right now is left with 55% after the Cluff deal
That's not taking into consideration the enormous production and capital costs they'll need to fund (another big CR is required) / dilution. This means it's no longer the Disallowed we were hoping for even if they find big gas (1TCF) as an example.

If a bigger/ elephant discovery is made then that would be great for shareholders. From these levels ~10c mark it's definitely worth the punt either way. I'm just sharing what I've come to learn from discussion with other holders.

It's good to see that they're pursuing another block of land to have as a backup and for more exploration if things dont work out on the first one.

I have high hopes for a discovery after all the previous research I had done. The history, Mobil, management, the petroleum system - Even though its a wildcat high risk drill, I would be surprised if they found nothing

An entry ~10c would definitely be worth while for the gamble IMO.

Expand

Really comes down to the price of the commodity in question right

Read this --> https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Opportunities-for-Gas-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Insight-44.pdf

They could be getting close to USD10 per MM in 2023. Even at 1TCF that's $10B in ground value.

9TCF $90B US. Who knows what the price of gas in sub Saharan Africa will be in 24 months? Look at Lithium prices 2 years ago compared to now.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	669855	8.8¢

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669855

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9.1¢

521001

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2	669855	0.088
1	105371	0.087
4	148296	0.086
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5	161012	0.084

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.091	221001	1
0.092	161992	1
0.094	200000	2
0.095	709834	8
0.096	204887	3

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221001

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709834

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204887

(20min delay)
Last 9.0¢		Change 0.003(3.45%)		Mkt cap ! $127.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.9¢	9.6¢	8.7¢	$1.056M	11.57M

Ann: Notification regarding unquoted securities - IVZ, page-39

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