wednesday washout, page-14

It's taken me forever to get this together this morning - but I'll still post it anyway. Was going to suggest if XAO closes at or above 4640, the AUD scenario is still not so bad.

Yes the USD is rallying, but on what? 0.2% better unemployment? I think it's contained if it stays below 77, and my target is closing below 76.5 this week (with fingers crossed) - but as long as the AUD can keep up with it. I'll reserve my judgement on the gold rally until the end of this week - end of next week at the outside.

AUD hourly is in a rising wedge that is yet to break below support. XAO looked like it 'was' in a diamond, until this mornings open ...

I thought we had escaped the worst of the AUD this month, but this morning just proved me wrong. Anyhow, this could just be a mistake ... but I'll remain optimistic until then - clouds are brewing, but it's not raining yet.

IF the AUD/USD breaks below 89.7 I'll look at joining many on the sidelines. IMO, SPX is holding up reasonably well considering USD made bigger moves last Friday.

rgds,
pw

AUD/USD hourly -


XAO (diamond formation?) - needs XAO to close at or above 4640