ESS Chart, page-295

It can if the probability of getting into production increases.

ESS have noted an intention to price up 1.6Mt ore processing (14 Jan 2022). Most planned and operational mines are between 60% and 80% recovery rates.

A 1.6Mt capacity plant with ESS's ore grade and even an ok recovery rate should be generating over 200kt of spod per year (Slighly above Core's stage 1 plans, about 1/3rd of LTR's start-up plans). This isn't that far below what PLS is currently doing before is expansion plans. Across Q3 FY21 to Q2 FY22 PLS processed between 415kt and 556kt/qtr for 78kt to 86kt/qtr of spod.

The three operations noted above are far more advanced but also have $2b, $4b and $9b market cap operations. If ESS can make material progress on the likelihood of getting into production (or get approvals and agreements making a takeover more likely) then a half billion, billion or higher market capitalisation is entirely possible. At a market cap of $117m currently, that's a whole lot of going north every day forever.

At current spod prices, ESS's market cap of $117m is the margin obtainable from selling 20kt of Spod on the spot market!!