After reading everyone's interpretation of the Brisbane presentation I just watched the video.
ALL IMO
My first observation is some peeps have been over analysing the situation.
1) Allegedly brought the wrong glasses. The playback video for the presenter was on the floor. As a presenter and MC myself this is not an ideal location for someone who wears reading glasses. Not being able to read the slides properly is a real hindrance and luckily James knows the slide deck really well and was able to make it work.
2) JM was rushed or spoke fast. Once JM got into presentation mode he spoke pretty much at a normal relaxed speed and he appeared calm. IMO he is one excited MD about the projects and opportunities of ADN. A 15 min time slot is really difficult to deliver such a complex message. As Churchill once said "If you want me to speak for 3 hours I can start now. But if you want me to speak for 3 minutes I will need 3 weeks to prepare" IMO JM is super busy and I'd prefer he spent that time progressing the business than working out how to fit the message in 15 mins.
3) I will say I'd prefer the slide deck to be cut down and emphasis put in other areas. I personally would have preferred some more emphasis on HRM (cement additive). In my personal opinion this is the nearest term high value project likely to push the SP. Did anyone pick up the comment once we prove it here we can use our patent to make this work around the world? i.e. licensing for other suppliers of kaolin to use our patent for their local concrete markets. More revenue for us!
4) Carbon Capture plant on the water. Having spoke to James many times I didn't interpret this is an awkward moment. About 4 weeks ago I got the same "on the water" message from James. So I found the message consistent. The issue is to do with shipping in COVID times. The ramping of boats at various ports to offload and onload containers or bulk goods is common place. The boat with the plant may have to stop at several ports along the way. The journey could take 4 weeks if direct and 18+ weeks if indirect. @Pezz69 could probably shed more light on shipping at the moment. I have no doubt if JM really wanted to he could ring the freight forwarders and know the precise location of the boat with the plant.
5) I thought it was interesting there was some time spent on the legacy projects. It was new for me to see this as ADN is not the operator in most/all cases. Deliberate strategy? Maybe, or an expectation there is some news and revenue imminent.
6) MEP Take Over - James made the comment a couple of times the Take Over took 12 months. There seems to be some to suggestion MEP was using time as a tactic to negotiate a stronger position for themselves. I have also heard a constant message of gaining MEP agreement on JV project decisions was slowing things down. I can't blame MEP for that. IMO what ultimately happened was ADN had to push on the raise the funds to progress the project and force MEP into a situation to either step up with their share of funds towards the JV or do the deal. Now that deal is all but concluded things should speed up.
Case in point. I was advised 4 weeks ago the 4 pages of compliance to take over MEP would be concluded April 4. JM mentioned in the presentation it would be concluded April 5. A one day slip in 4 weeks for dealing with MEP, Govt departments and the ASX. Seems to me ADN know how to deliver a project on time.
7) I am happy JM put sometime lines around next steps DFS next week - James' preference was to have as much in it as possible and I don't think a delay of a few weeks would have effected the timeline to production, however, some here think it is a big deal.
More offtakes and BFS over the next 2-3 months. Word of caution. It appears ADN prefer to lock in the remaining offtakes before the BFS. These offtakes could take longer as the purchasers may also use time as a tactic to secure a better deal for themselves. Seen it many a time. I am happy for ADN to push on with BFS without the extra offtakes or delay the BFS to include the offtakes when the drop. Which ever way it rolls it will get done. How the BFS is finalised could also be depend on the conditions precedent to finance. i.e. what conditions the bank wants met before agreeing to finance the project.
Conclusion, we are in good hands.
Have a great weekend all.
ADN Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)