OK, the DFS is out.
As discussed here a lot of shareholders had very unrealistic expectations and the shorters had inside knowledge which gave them an opportunity to cover. DFS numbers were not stacking up so management tried to delay it as long as possible.
Moving on.
Problems shown in the DFS.
Capex size and IRR.
IRR, the PFS IRR was on capex estimated below 30 million, with increased capex of course it got significantly worse.
Not unexpected.
Timing.
This is where the big issue is buried. The BOA for PRM was conditional on commercial production by the end of 2022. Now we are talking July 2029, so in my opinion that BOA is worth nothing. Even CRM will not be produced till July 2025.
Finance,
No idea how they will fund the 60+ million needed for stage 1.
Credibility.
This exposes a rather large amount of spin passed from company to shareholders as just spin.
Remember: CR done for long lead term items, DFS needs to be changed for PRM, DFS needs 3 quotations for every item, MEP takeover is a great deal and everything needs to be kept secret......
Moving on.
Positives.
Staged approach to development.
Stage one to produce KCM kaolin concentrate and HRM concrete additive.
While the first one will be relatively low margin product (still around 200$/t) we don't know the pricing for the second one.
I expect that there are a few more things that will come out over next few days as without some great news on HRM I don't see how the company could be funded.
Hopefully we will hear much lass about the CC and other wet dreams for now and just focus on getting the company moving.
I will hold for now.
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