recent gloom, page-37

golfy old chap,
hunch or no as the case may be, there are some rather sobering things to consider when rating long term on this stock.
first, the first discovery in the browse was scott reef in 1971 which quite conclusively flowed gas at a very large rate indeed. it was recorded as approx 8 mmscf/d through a 3/8th inch choke. subsequently north scott reef, brecknock and brecknock sth have also been booked as major discoveries with conclusively measured flow rates.
second, much more recently there has been the icthysius (spelling?)discovery by inpex.
third, none of these have yet made a final commitment to development, although it seems that inpex may be ahead of the woodside group in this respect.
fourth, the kar discoveries are in deep water browse, kar is the minor partner most likely with no blocking vote on exploration activities and therefore costs.
fifth, given that there is maybe 20 or 30 tcf or so of conclusive gas in line for development, and that even these will not be producing lng for maybe 5 to 10 years let alone a positive cash flow which may take as much time again, one wonders what the npv of any kar gas will be, even assuming that a commercial flow rate can be established which at the moment seems to be in question or at best inconclusive.
dropping the numbered points, any long term holders of kar in my opinion will need to be very long lived indeed to ever see a dividend from commercial activities. it would seem that any gains to be made will be from share price movements from which only the swift will benefit. this has to be seen as a volatile trading stock with very little in the way of proven resources with share price subject to conclusive/inconclusive announcements. it is to be hoped that potential investors do not enter with eyes wide shut.
i would like to emphasise that this is not a downramp, simply a listing of pertinent facts and their logical conclusions that folk should be aware of.