Ann: OCC Signs Striate Global License And Manufacturing Agreement, page-189

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Ducks_Head

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30/06/22

09:41

Post #: 62288514
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Originally posted by bedger: ↑

It seems you are not alone in your unrealistic expectations on this announcement. Guys look at any similar announcements. You just don't get details of margins, prices and forecast units and revenue all buttered up for you.

Details will follow, or at least figures you can then dissect.

Back of the envelope, USA alone, 3 million people have implants and adds about 500K a year:

https://mirodentalcenter.com/dental-implants-facts-and-stats/

Lets be conservative and call North America 750K total. Let's also be conservative and only call all of Europe 1M. Just a half million in Latin America and despite its size, Asia just 1.25mill. We will call Oceania and Africa small figures and leave it at a very conservative 3 million.

BioHorizons does around 10% of global market. 40% require GBR.

Thats 3mill X 0.1 X 0.4 = 120K.

Connect the dots. OCC recently announced it was expanding its manufacturing capacity to "over 100,000 per year". 120K a year seems to correspond nicely to me. Let's go with that.

Lets go conservative again on price sold to BioHorizons. Let's go $50 USD per unit. That's $6,000,000 USD in revenues a year. You might want to say $10 gross profit per unit at $600,000 USD operating profit on this manufacturing deal of CelGro alone, conservatively.

This market pales compared to nerve. We then have tendon application down the line. But intially approaching $10 million Aussie revenues and $1 million gross profit, on conservative estimates, on the smallest revenue application of CelGro suits me just fine. Obviously that's not going to be immediate, but a transition to it in 2023.

I look forward to far more thorough analysis that refutes my quick sketchy take (Striate not my real area of interest in OCC). Anything but the constant dissatisfaction on lack of detail on here.

They just pulled a deal with a top 5 global dental Pharma out of the hat guys. It's a pretty awesome deal and to me holds far more value than the simple business figures, from the commercial focus and marketing endorsement of the technology this deal provides to Remplir and CelGro Tendon which the company will likely partner in supplying business to customer, rather than business to business, at far larger scale and higher margins. $€£€£$

Expand

Just to be clear Bedger,

of course I wasn't expecting any actual numbers. But there has been no mention of any potential profit at all from the manufacturing and/or supply.

What I'm wondering is did they effectively just sell Striate for 23 mil and that's that. Or will there be any profit to OCC for manufacture and supply?

I would've expected some mention about an on going profits with out specific numbers. I agree with Festa, that it would have a noticeable impact on SP.

i don't like to make assumptions.

Last edited by Ducks_Head: 30/06/22

OCC Price at posting: 40.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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