I feel compelled to say I found JM's last interview extremely disappointing. I still follow ADN closely, always hoping to see progress, particularly on the CC plant. Many here don’t believe in climate change, but I do, and I want ADN to succeed, even if I am no longer invested.
There have been so many half-veiled promises. The worst was the arrow on the share price chart pointing up. It was a deliberate wink, suggesting the imminent DFS will more than justify the market cap. Well, it didn’t, and they knew that. That’s why they didn’t provide the post-tax NPV, and why they didn’t update the PFS metrics table where they had previously compared results with the SS. They knew the numbers looked bad with respect to previous studies, and the mkt cap. Otherwise, why obscurify the comparison? Worse, they claimed the market didn’t understand the DFS, that it is robust, without explaining why. At that point, I really began to think this is all cynical spin designed to ride the SP for as long as possible on the backs of committed retail investors.
I kept silent, as a non-holder, I think it’s inappropriate for me to contribute. But this interview is beyond dreadful, and deserves to be labelled as such. I remember ADN claiming banks were lining up to finance them, that customers were knocking on their doors, that much news is waiting, and the only thing stopping them was the merger, then the DFS. Now that that’s long gone, there are still no real updates, and yet, the explanation is they are busy. Sure, I guess investors will have to take their word on that. But what about the banks and customers knocking on their doors? Why no progress with that? The interview was all fluff. For example, saying they are generating some IP is just twaddle. There is copyright in the words I’ve penned here. There’s some IP. So what?
I’m thinking now of Skardon River, it was a complex project, with a poor resource in a difficult environment, almost doomed to fail. I always gave JM the benefit of the doubt, when reading how he spun the project in the papers, just before the whole lot went belly up. I wrote that off as potential inexperience, over-confidence, overly-optimistic. But perhaps that project wasn’t an aberration. So many times, ADN alluded the GW margins were fat. But they aren’t. How much thinner remains to be seen. Relying on a weak AUD is BS. If we have a resources boom, the AUD will rise, and if we don’t, ADN's prospects weaken considerably.
So, I’m writing, to shout my disappointment into the void, perhaps hoping someone will provide a compelling reason why this whole ADN show shouldn’t be interpreted as BS. I sold immediately on the DFS’s release. I made a solid profit, so I can’t complain. Yet, as a previous true-believer, I don’t like the seemingly strong possibility I was taken for a fool.
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