In the Crux from 12 months ago, which is hard to watch now.
*The only thing from the interview which makes me happy NOW, is the DSO comments.
Remember when we all thought DSO was the dirty poor man option?
"Were giving away all that margin! bla,bla?"
Well, DSO could save ADN tomorrow.*No CR, just 1-2 years of low margin cash-flow, which pays for the 90M DFS plant.
That gets this back to 300-400M MC IMO in a few months easily.
The SP doesn't get to 50c+ but, as an ASX producer of a stable mineral with cash-flow, the MC gets back into the 20-30c range.
However...from that same interview is the famous HPA comments.
If we just did the DSO and I'll hope/assume the full UK HPA is up and running now or in the next 12 months.
ADN could take just a small amount of feedstock from GW while it's DSOing...and do HPA?
You know...the 100M in revenue at 25% margin?
James has said a couple times that HPA alone could be bigger than anything else in the company.
More questions...
-Does the DFS business model stand and just get pushed out 2 years?
-Can they even do that? release a DFS and then jump back to the PFS model?
-Can ADN get the PEPR finished, then do DSO and "just" build the cheaper HPA plant and somehow get feedstock from that?
Remembering 2 things...
*To get HPA, ADN's feedstock amount is much smaller.
*The DSO process is just removing the sand 50% (which we now know has value)
-Is this sand removal built into the UK HPA plant or does it just need to be processed through a simple de-sander first?
The most important question...how much is the "UK HPA" plant?
(I'd assume much less than the 30M in the bank?)
-Could ADN make a smaller plant to get to this 100M HPA sales?
*Oh, and the HPA processing produces REE.
-How long to actually build this HPA plant?
James said these are off the shelf parts. Faster than the DFS plant?
Or, is there a way to just mine "enough" feedstock via the DFS/PEPR model to feed a NEW HPA plant?
I assume a good part of the DFS/PEPR is about the mining process, not the actual plant.
IMO...
DSO although not sexy, saves ADN from a CR or being forced into any "strategic investor" who may bully ADN down the road.
It lets ADN build a cash pile to pay for the swiss army knife DFS plant.
**I fully agree with everyone's feeling that DSO at 22c wasn't a good option.
with ADN at 7c and gentle talk of a CR...I LOVE DSO...love it!
With the HPA(REE) and being a real HPA producer with its high margins, ADN becomes loved again by the ASX.
or they don't do the DSO and keep everything the same as...and build a HPA/REE plant first.
all at less cost/and less tonnage. For higher margin and putting ADN right in front of the sexy HPA/REE business that the market would run to.
If any of the above is ADNs plan, then it explains the news blackout the past 5 months.
It also is a brilliant response IMO, to the current "investor misunderstanding" of the DFS -facepalm/ world events/ low SP.
The above conjecture is about 2 things.
1. Reverting back to DSO or...
2. Not doing DSO but, delaying the DSF model to focus on HPA/REE for 12-18 months.
Thoughts?
(20min delay)