It's funny reading all the posts around debt, equity raisings and the SP dropping.
I've thought a bit around the Iberoclays LOI and the timing of this converting to a BoA, my view is that it was an LOI based around Iberoclays not only validating it internally but with clients that they distribute to, hence why a small amount to start with based on what they could sell/use at the time without the full validations being completed.
Now that the full validations have likely been done, I would not be surprised if Iberoclays increase the size of their order (which they would have spoken with Bob about at the very start). Who knows, this could be enough to move straight to 1b which Bob has alluded too (or quicker which is what I think he said).
To me, this all makes sense why the debt part has not been finalised. Whilst I think the numbers are enough to get to 1a, why finalise the debt part (which will come with a small equity portion at this stage), when Bob likely knows that when he comes back from Italy with the increased sized signed BoA that the share price will increase upon announcement.
Again, what if its big enough to go straight to 1b, wouldn't that be something for the shorter's to panic about if they have been selling in the mid to low 2s this past couple of weeks!
If I were to guess why the SP has dropped it would be these retail shorter's thinking that the debt announcement is going to come in before a positive announcement given that this will come with an equity portion. Probably also the reason why the Harbinger and their other accounts have come out strongly with posts. If the debt part doesn't come first, then their backup now is trying to scare holders to sell and reduce the SP. You can already see that shorter(s) have put their buy orders in to cover. i,e, the 1m buys and the 7m buy etc.
With the timing, I also feel that that this worked well with Italian Ceramics show where Bob can not only be there to sign the BoA with Iberoclays in person, but also meet future customers of Iberoclays and others outside of where Iberoclays have agreed to distribute to. The ceramic show could be a showpiece for Iberoclays and their new formula with Bob talking about Andromeda and the size of the resource i.e. they can actually supply the agreed amounts. (another reason for the uDFS).
So, to summarise, in my view what will come first:
- The signed BoA with Iberoclays once Bob has met up with them, potentially at a higher volume and who knows a higher price given potential savings in Zircon;
- Depending on the above and the resulting SP, the debt part will then be finalised, again depending on 1a or 1b and all the other information that comes with this. Whether it's just a debt provider with equity or equity outside of the debt provider I don't know given the above. I would say that it will come with strategic partners, this could even be Iberoclays. This would a great result given they would be doing it more around shoring up supply than getting discounts etc etc as they would be part of the long-term journey. This could be why ADN posted the tweet for WAK.
(20min delay)